Kremlin seeks to use Belarus’ military-industrial complex to support protracted war against Ukraine - ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports in its latest assessment of the Russian military campaign.

"The Kremlin will likely subsume elements of Belarus’ defense industrial base (DIB) as part of Moscow’s larger effort to re-equip the Russian military to support a protracted war against Ukraine," the report says.

Thus, experts recalled that self-proclaimed Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on February 17 that Belarus’ aerospace industry is ready to produce Su-25 ground attack aircraft for the Russian military with the support of Russian technology transfers.

Lukashenko also stated that the Belarusian state-run Minsk Automobile Plant began producing components to support Russian KAMAZ (a Russian heavy-duty truck producer) products and expressed willingness to help Russia produce electronic components to substitute for lost Western imports.

Lukashenko additionally stated that Belarus is implementing 100 percent of unspecified defense and security cooperation agreements that Belarus and Russia agreed to “three months ago.”

Experts are convinced that Russia will continue to use the military-industrial base of Belarus more actively to strengthen its own potential in the war in Ukraine.

" Additional Su-25s and truck parts are likely not critical material for the success of Russia’s long-term war effort. The Kremlin may commandeer Belarusian factories and retool them to produce critical materiel that the Russian military needs, Lukashenko’s statements notwithstanding. The Russians might also seek to repurpose Russian factories currently involved in or tooled for the production of Su-25s and trucks to produce more urgently needed materiel," the ISW report says.

• Earlier, ISW analysts claimed that the personnel changes in the command of Russia's military districts are aimed at smoothing out previous failures in Ukraine, as well as reducing tensions between the Russian Defense Ministry and the founder of the Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin.