Failures at front and conflict with Prigozhin: ISW explains personnel rotation of Russian Defense Ministry command

ISW reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense has confirmed that it has appointed Lieutenant General Andrey Mordvichev as Central Military District (CMD) commander and that it had previously appointed Colonel General Sergey Kuzovlev as Southern Military District (SMD) commander, Lieutenant General Yevgeny Nikiforov as Western Military District (WMD) commander, and Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov as Eastern Military District (EMD) commander.

According to analysts, formalization of military district commanders is likely part of an effort to distance the Russian military from past failures and to prepare the Russian military for a renewed large-scale offensive in Ukraine.

In addition, the reshuffle also accompanies the MoD’s likely attempt to delineate clearer areas of responsibility for each military district in Ukraine.

"The appointment of these commanders does not represent the restoration of the pre-war MoD leadership bloc or an expansion of the ultranationalist siloviki faction’s power, despite reported connections that Nikiforov has to Wagner Financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and tenuous connections that Mordvichev may have with Chechen Republic head Ramzan Kadyrov," the report says.

According to experts, the Kremlin likely appointed figures relatively neutral in the struggle between Wagner PMC financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and the MoD to these positions to appease both parties while also likely setting up potential scapegoats for any future failures in Ukraine to protect recently appointed theater commander and Russian Chief of the General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, from potential criticism.

At the same time, analysts believe that Prigozhin is mounting an informational counteroffensive against the conventional Russian military establishment. 

"Prigozhin has likely launched an intensified informational campaign against the Russian MoD in response to the MoD’s likely role in barring the Wagner Group from continuing its prison recruitment campaign and Prigozhin’s overall declining influence," the analysts note.

Prigozhin‘s declining prominence and the end of the Wagner Group‘s prison recruitment campaign are likely constraining the Wagner Group‘s operational capabilities in Ukraine, ISW believes.