Belarus, most likely, will not launch land offensive, but will 100% launch air provocations - military expert Hetman

He shared his opinions with Espreso TV.

"As for Belarus, Russia has brought Iskanders there, and a MiG-31K equipped with Kinzhal missiles has been flying there for several months, which is just like Iskander but airborne. The enemy is unlikely to launch an offensive by land, because we have built a very good defense there and it will be impossible for the enemy to pass it. However, the enemy will definitely make provocations, especially air provocations. This includes S-300 and S-400, as well as Iskanders, which they have already taken to Belarus. We can expect missile attacks from Belarusian territory," the military expert explained.

Oleksii Hetman added that certain provocations on the border with Poland and Lithuania are also possible.

"Maybe that's why the US First Infantry Division arrived in Poland, it's hard to say how many arrived, but this division consists of 20,000 people and 800 pieces of equipment. They came just in case there were any provocations from Belarusian territory towards Poland in order to draw Belarus into this war, and Putin could say that this is a European, almost world war," Hetman said.

• On January 20, ISW suggested that a Russian offensive into Ukraine from Belarus could be more likely in late 2023.

• On January 30, Andriy Demchenko, a spokesman for the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, said that on average, about 9,000 Russian troops could be on the territory of Belarus. The situation on the border with Belarus was under control, with no movement of equipment or enemy troops.

• On February 1, Belarusian Hajun monitoring project reported that Belarus could have received one division of Iskander tactical missile systems. The division includes 4 launchers for 8 ballistic missiles.

• On February 2, ISW explained why Putin was creating conditions for escalation in the northeastern regions of Ukraine.