Weekly frontline outcomes: new offensive from North is unlikely in near future

Serhiy Zgurets, military expert and Espreso TV presenter, shared his analysis of the frontline situation.

Russia may involve 450,000 troops in combat operations

The enemy is accumulating forces for offensive actions. The question is whether there are forces for this purpose. Now the enemy holds a group of 250,000 people on the territory of Ukraine. After the first mobilization (compensation for losses), Russia also has 200,000 mobilized who are undergoing training and preparation. In total, about 450,000 can be involved in combat operations. Ukrainian Defense Forces have 1 million personnel and a numerical advantage. In any case, offensive actions from any direction exist only in theory right now. It is an exaggeration to say that an offensive from Belarus or in the direction of Sumy and Kharkiv may be launched in the near future. Therefore, it is hardly possible.

According to the conclusions of the AFU General Staff, there are a total of 20,000 Russian troops on the territory of Russia’s Kursk, Bryansk regions, and Belarus. This indicates the absence of a reserve. Twice as many troops were attacking Kyiv from Belarus at the start of the invasion. There were 45,000. The General Staff’s statements that there are no grounds for the formation of an offensive group in Belarus are quite logical.

Russian nuclear threats may contribute to the West’s determination to recapture Crimea

There are Russian carriers of nuclear weapons in Crimea, whether they are carrying weapons is a separate matter. Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate stated that there is no data on tactical nuclear weapons. Russia’s speculations that there are tactical nuclear weapons that can be used as an impetus to ensure that the US and Europe unite in the determination that Crimea should be liberated as soon as possible. If Ukraine recaptures Crimea from people who threaten the world with tactical nuclear weapons, then it will protect both Europe and ourselves. I think that this can contribute to the liberation of Crimea before Donetsk and Luhansk. Crimea may go on a "starvation ration" due to cutting Russian supply lines off. And this will force the enemy to leave the peninsula faster.

Key gravity centers of the Russian defense are being destroyed in southern Ukraine

In the South, Russia aims at building a reliable defense and holding this land corridor for as long as possible, which is extremely important since it grants Russia access to Crimea and control of the Azov Sea coast. Now units from the right bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region are being transferred to Bakhmut. New units are being brought to the South and all transport routes are being reinforced. On the other hand, Melitopol, Tokmak, Polohy, Vasylivka. These are the settlements that are subjected to strikes of Ukraine’s long-range artillery, which led to significant casualties among Russian troops, command staff, and the elimination of ammunition stocks. Further, the AFU keep adhering to their tactics of ensuring the maximum destruction of key gravity centers of the Russian defense. They will continue doing so for several more months and then future offensive actions may be considered. As for the enemy, despite the attempts to create the illusion of them launching offensives, the concentration of such a force does not allow them to secure any areas.

The dynamics of Russia’s losses will be the same

Russian casualty figures are striking. They indicate that the enemy has restored the regular number of units that suffered losses. It seems that the more Russian soldiers are in Ukraine, the more are eliminated by long-range systems. This trend will continue. The enemy makes a lot of mistakes regarding the troops' deployment. Until the preconditions for the AFU’s offensive actions are created, they will continue shelling Russian troops with artillery. This dynamic will go on.

Dnipro islands in the Kherson region will remain “gray zones”

The enemy is now actively using the territory where it can strike at Ukraine’s facilities. This also applies to all the islands on the Dnipro River in the Kherson region. Russian troops would often locate their mortars on Potemkin Island, which they used to shell Kherson. Creating a security line at the expense of Ukraine’s artillery is quite achievable. It is not an easy task for the AFU artillery, because there is a significant front line that requires close control, intelligence and strikes. The main strikes are made on the objects that are of the greatest importance. The islands will remain a gray zone, where both sides will try to ensure control and push the enemy out.

No reason to worry about Bakhmut’s future

The situation around Bakhmut remains difficult. All Russian frontal attacks aimed at entering the city from the east have been suspended. Although the enemy is entrenched in the forest near the houses in the eastern part of the city and is trying to conduct further offensive actions. These frontal attacks do not make sense in terms of efficiency. We remember the statements of Wagner PMC owner Prigozhin about the lack of ammunition and "500 lines" of defense in the city. This is evidence that it is impossible to capture Bakhmut head-on. The enemy is changing approaches and trying to secure Bakhmut from the north and south. In the north, the most affected towns are Siversk and Soledar. The most tragic events in the defense of this section of the front are taking place there due to attempts to break through to Soledar. The enemy is trying to capture Soledar (and fails). In the south, Russian troops are attempting to advance to Klishchiivka and ensure the encirclement of Bakhmut. It has been going on for 8 months with no result and there is no reason to worry about the future of Bakhmut. We have brought additional units to ensure a more effective defense. The situation will be aimed at destroying the units that the enemy is trying to deploy there.