The "Black ostrich" phenomenon: When foreseeable risks are ignored

In the case of the "black swan" phenomenon, we refer to unpredictable events, making it challenging for managers to apply risk management procedures. In contrast, the "black ostrich" refers to events that can be predicted, but managers refuse to believe that these foreseeable and preparable events could actually occur.

The allegory comes from the myth that ostriches supposedly bury their heads in the sand. In reality, they simply lower their heads to the ground when they need to cough.

Your humble servant experienced the phenomenon of the "black ostrich" when he did not want to believe in the possibility of a full-scale attack against Ukraine, as it would signify a slow but inevitable decline of the empire, regardless of Ukraine's future. But it happened.

The most common examples of the “black ostrich” phenomenon are:

• attack on Pearl Harbor (07.12.1941);
• the attack on the World Trade Center (September 11, 2001);
• Avril Haines' report “Global Trends 2040” (2020).

Lloyd Austin's statement about not accepting the fact that North Korea has entered the war on Russia's side, as established by Ukrainian intelligence, is also an example of the "black ostrich" phenomenon.

Recognizing that North Koreans participated in the war against the West would necessitate action. However, the current administration has likely decided to leave the situation as it is for the next U.S. president to address.

* Without any racial overtones

Source

About the author. Dmytro Zolotukhin, former Deputy Minister of Information Policy of Ukraine, expert on information warfare and competitive intelligence.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.