Ukraine has significant advance in Zaporizhzhia region, Russian defense degrades, any Ukraine’s breakthrough may be decisive – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports this in its daily review.

Analysts point out that Ukrainian forces have made tactically significant advances in the western part of Zaporizhzhia region amid continuing counteroffensive operations in at least three frontline areas.

“Geolocated footage published on August 11 confirms that Ukrainian forces reached the northern outskirts of Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) in western Zaporizhzhia region, though the permanence and extent of these positions are currently unclear,” noted in the report.

ISW reminds that Ukrainian forces have conducted regular ground attacks towards Robotyne for weeks as part of their operations aimed at degrading Russian defenses.

According to the report, the Ukrainian forces’ ability to advance to the outskirts of Robotyne — which Russian forces have dedicated significant effort, time, and resources to defend — remains significant even if Ukrainian gains are limited at this time. 

Geolocation footage released on August 11 shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced to Urozhaine (9 km south of Velyka Novosilka) along the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.

According to experts, Ukrainian counteroffensive operations appear to be forcing the Russian military to laterally redeploy Russian forces defending in western Zaporizhzhia region, indicating that the Ukrainian effort there may be significantly degrading Russian defenses. 

Experts also point out that Russia’s practice of conducting lateral redeployments to key sectors of the front will likely further weaken Russian defensive lines in aggregate, as both Russian and Ukrainian operations are fixing Russian units to certain sectors of the front. 

These lateral reinforcements will likely disrupt Russian offensive and defensive operations in the sectors from which they are drawn and threaten to rapidly degrade the forces that the Russian military is using as reinforcements.

In addition, it is noted that Russia currently lacks available forces that it could involve in reinforcements without endangering other sectors of the front. 

Ukrainian counteroffensive operations have drawn elite Russian formations and units to the Bakhmut area and continue to fix them there.

Russian troops have also deployed a significant number of forces for localized offensives in the area of Kupyansk and Svatove, which are also aimed at drawing Ukrainian troops away from the areas of Ukrainian counteroffensives.

"Even if the Russian command determines to end localized offensive pushes in these areas it would likely take some time for Russian forces to lower the tempo of their operations and withdraw forces for lateral redeployments without opening up areas of the front to successful Ukrainian counterattacks. The limited Russian lateral redeployment of elements of the 7th VDV Division from the left bank of Kherson Oblast in June appears to have set conditions that allowed Ukrainian forces to more freely operate in the area, and Ukrainian forces will likely similarly exploit weakened Russian groupings in other areas of the front where they are actively conducting offensive operations in the event of further Russian movements," the report says.

On the other hand, analysts say, Ukrainian forces maintain reserves that allow them to rotate units instead of relying on redeploying units conducting defensive and offensive operations to other sectors of the line without rest.

They believe that Ukrainian forces likely therefore can maintain the necessary combat potential needed to continue degrading Russian forces defending southern Ukraine and the Bakhmut area while constraining Russian advances along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. 

Russian lateral redeployments will likely increase the likelihood that Russian forces would have to fall back to prepared defensive positions without significant support in the case of a Ukrainian breakthrough.

"The further degradation of defending Russian forces thus creates opportunities for any Ukrainian breakthrough to be potentially decisive," the experts conclude.

• According to the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Ukrainian troops continue to advance and repel Russian terrorists' attacks in a number of areas.

• Military expert Serhiy Zgurets also notes that the dynamics of the Ukrainian brigades' actions are such that the Russian enemy will be pushed out of both Robotyne and Verbove. Everything is going to that point.

Review of Ukrainian counteroffensive

On June 4, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a counteroffensive on the southern frontline, continuing a series of offensive operations near Bakhmut and in other directions.

On June 19, Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine Hanna Maliar reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces liberated Pyatykhatky, Zaporizhzhia region, and advanced up to 7 km in the Tavria direction.

On June 24, the Ukrainian Defense Forces officially confirmed the liberation of the territories near Krasnohorivka in the Donetsk region, which had been under occupation since 2014.

On June 26, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar also said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had de-occupied the village of Rivnopil, Donetsk region. It is located in the Volnovakha district of the Donetsk region. The Russian army occupied the village in March 2022.

The Defense Ministry reported that as of July 17, since the beginning of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive in the Bakhmut sector, the military had liberated an area of more than 30 km². In the Melitopol and Berdiansk directions, almost 180 km² of Ukrainian land were de-occupied.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday, July 23, that the Defense Forces have recaptured half of the territory that Russia has occupied since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.

On July 25, the ISW stated that Ukraine's counteroffensive would not be fast and easy.

On July 25, the Ukrainian Defense Forces drove the Russians out of their positions near Andriivka in the Bakhmut direction, and in the Staromayorske area, they succeeded and are consolidating their positions. The Ukrainian Armed Forces restrained the Russian offensive near Marinka and repelled enemy attacks in other areas.

On July 26, the General Staff reported that the Defense Forces continued to advance in three directions. Instead, the Russian occupiers are trying to regain the lost position near Robotyno in Zaporizhzhia region. Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Maliar said that the Defense Forces continue to successfully conduct offensive actions on the southern flank around Bakhmut. Fierce fighting continues in the area of Klishchiiivka, Kurdyumivka and Andriivka.

US officials said on July 26 that Ukraine told them that the army is now engaged in a major counteroffensive, moving more troops and equipment to the most western of the three fronts, near Zaporizhzhia.  

The Institute for the Study of War reported that on July 26, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a mechanized counteroffensive operation in Zaporizhzhia region and may have broken through enemy defensive positions near Orikhiv.

On July 27, the Ukrainian Armed Forces repelled several enemy attacks in the Kupyansk sector without losing ground, and in the Bakhmut sector our soldiers gradually moved forward. The fighting was quite fierce. The enemy was firing intensively. The General Staff reported that the Defense Forces were conducting an offensive at the Melitopol and Berdiansk directions.

On the same day, it became known that Ukrainian soldiers had liberated the village of Staromayorske in Donetsk region.

On July 31, it was reported that during the counteroffensive, the Ukrainian military liberated more than 204 square kilometers of territory in the south, and another 37 square kilometers in the Bakhmut direction.

On August 2, it was reported that the Russian occupiers are trying to reclaim their lost grounds in the Donetsk region, namely in the Bakhmut and Shakhtarsk directions.

Analysts at The New York Times reported that the Russian forces are overstretched, experiencing problems with logistics, supplies, personnel and weapons, and it is becoming apparent that they are beginning to retreat.

On August 3, British intelligence named vegetation on the battlefields of southern Ukraine as one of the factors slowing down the Ukrainian army's counteroffensive.

Subsequently, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said that the Defense Forces had already broken through the first line of defense in some places and were now moving to the intermediate line.

Brigadier General Dmytro Hereha, Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Support Forces, said that in the occupied territories, Russian forces have set up a multi-echelon system of engineering barriers, which consists of several strips of 10 to 40 km each with a fairly high density. This causes difficulties for the Ukrainian Defense Forces in conducting offensives in the southern direction.

On August 5, 30 clashes took place between the Ukrainian Defense Forces and Russian troops at the front, and Russia lost 590 soldiers, 5 tanks, and a MLRS. 

On August 6, Budanov assessed the Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive: the military's advance in the Bakhmut direction is slightly faster than in the south.

As of August 9, it was reported that Ukrainian Defense Forces have taken back over 40,000 square kilometers of our land from the Russian invaders since February 24, 2022.

On August 10, it was reported that the Defense Forces had partial success near Urozhayne and Staromayorske, and were entrenched near Bakhmut.​​​