Russia will not force Ukraine to negotiate with help of threats and it reduces nuclear rhetoric

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) states in the report.

The Kremlin also escalated its nuclear rhetoric after Russian military failures in Kharkiv Oblast and during Ukrainian counteroffensives in Lyman and northern Kherson Oblast in early October. The Kremlin likely continued its thinly veiled nuclear threats to deflect from their military and mobilization problems and to intimidate Ukraine’s Western partners.

Experts say that Putin and key Kremlin officials frequently mentioned the use of nuclear weapons during Putin's annexation speech on September 30 and throughout October, likely to force Ukraine to start negotiations and reduce Western support for Kyiv.

On September 30, Putin in his speech made several general references to nuclear weapons but avoided directly threatening their use. The Institute believes that Putin's rhetoric during this speech and throughout October was consistent with his previous nuclear threats and did not strike the level of fear in the Ukrainian government that Kremlin likely intended. And Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Directorate of Military Intelligence of Ukraine, said on October 24 that Russia's nuclear threat remains at the same level as before the start of the war.

Kremlin has also sharpened its nuclear rhetoric following Russian military setbacks in the Kharkiv region and during Ukrainian counteroffensives in Lyman and the northern Kherson region in early October. Moscow likely continued its thinly veiled nuclear threats to distract from its military and mobilization problems and intimidate Ukraine's Western partners, analysts say.

However, key Kremlin officials began to collectively de-escalate their rhetoric about the use of nuclear weapons in early November, ISW noted.

Russian authorities may conduct a rhetorical nuclear war in the future, trying to encourage the United States and its allies to pressure Ukraine to start negotiations.  But Moscow will not be able to force Kyiv to negotiate with nuclear threats directly.

Experts emphasize that Kremlin's nuclear threats failed to undermine Ukraine's political and social will to resist the Russian invasion.

ISW says Ukraine and its international supporters have made it clear they will not agree to negotiations at gunpoint and will not give up Ukraine's sovereign right to its territories.

The report also said Kremlin likely privately clarified its "nuclear policy" to de-escalate relations with the United States and its allies.

In particular, US and allied officials have reported that US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has been in contact with Putin's foreign policy adviser Yuriy Ushakov and Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev in an effort to reduce the risk of nuclear weapons being used.