Putin's plan could last into the 2030s without change — Portnikov

This opinion was shared by journalist Vitaly Portnikov on Espreso TV.

"In the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, I said this war would resemble the Syrian conflict. Now we see how that ended. Maybe it’s time to learn from it? Right now, Russia controls only a small part of Ukraine, its army is stuck, and it’s bleeding resources. But without an organized society, effective government, a real fight against corruption, and respect for military service, we won’t share the fate of Syrian rebels — we’ll share the fate of Assad’s Syria. And instead of Assad, someone like Pushilin (the Moscow-installed head of the self-proclaimed 'Donetsk People's Republic' (DPR) — ed.) will show up here. Then people will shrug and say, 'Well, he declared himself president of Ukraine. What can we do?' We have to discuss it. They once refused to negotiate with Assad, calling him a terrorist. Now everyone, including the Russians, is sitting down with him. This is a dangerous path," he warned.

Putin is playing the long game. Even without heavy fighting, this war could stretch into the 2020s and 2030s. To prevent that, Ukraine needs to act now. Four simple steps could change the course set on February 24, 2022, says Portnikov.

"We must hold on to our allies. We need to make it clear to the U.S. that our defeat would be a disaster for them — a personal humiliation for Donald Trump and his circle. If Trump lets Putin take Ukraine, he’ll go down in history as weak. People will mock his 'peace through strength' slogan, even at his grave. And given his age, that won’t take 50 years, it’ll happen soon. He needs to understand that handing Ukraine to Putin would turn him into a joke," the journalist said.

Ukraine must also hold its society together and resist provocations, because falling for them leads only to mass graves or mass migration.

"If 8–9 million people flee, their children will end up washing dishes in the countries that take them in. That’s not just relocation, that’s a dead-end future. Neither they nor their children will thrive. You can’t just wait for things to collapse and hope to sit it out. If you don’t understand this now, don’t complain later that no one warned you. National unity and an effective government are key. You can’t play politics with people who have no idea what they’re doing," he added.

A national unity government made up of professional politicians is Ukraine’s only chance to stay on the world map in the 2020s, Portnikov argues.

"This country could vanish as if it never existed. Respect for the army is critical, it's the only guarantee that Ukraine will survive and that Russians won’t slaughter Ukrainians with impunity."

Ukraine needs the opposite of Syria’s conditions: strong allies, a united society, a capable army, and effective governance. The government must inspire trust. The military must be advanced. Allies must stay committed. And Ukrainians must be ready to defend their country, he concluded.

• Recently, U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, stated that ending the war as soon as possible is in the interest of the entire world, including the United States.