No catastrophe is expected at the front

"I am an optimist. It does not seem too much use being anything else."

(Winston Churchill)

In August, I predicted what our Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi described in his article - a positional war. There are also a growing number of insights and comments about the peace talks in the Western press. But let's wait until the end of November to evaluate my past predictions and make future ones.

The current situation. We have a very difficult situation in Avdiivka and a very promising one on the left bank of the Kherson region

- Avdiivka. As I predicted, the occupiers seem to have fallen into the Prigozhin trap. At this point, the issue transcends considerations of cost, as they will deploy all available resources. To do this, they are actively withdrawing troops from other areas. Therefore, I emphasize once again that the current concern is not whether we will hold Avdiivka or not, but how we will use the situation as a whole. Unfortunately, the situation is complicated due to the exhaustion of our forces and resources.

- The left bank. The airborne operations on the left bank are bearing fruit. And this is the only reason why I believe that our counteroffensive cannot be declared unsuccessful until the end of November. No details yet.

And now the most important thing. No catastrophe has occurred and is not even expected yet. In the end, even if we assume the loss of Avdiivka, it is a big problem, but it is definitely not a catastrophe or a defeat in the war. It will be a catastrophe if we do not adopt a new war strategy by the end of the year. It is obvious that previous approaches and analysis have exhausted themselves. And here we are talking not only about the front, but about the country as a whole: international politics, economy, personnel decisions, etc.

That is why we are working for victory, whoever, wherever and however we can. Remember that we survived in 2022 solely because of our unity and morale. Losing this will be a defeat in the war.

Source

About the author. Viktor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst and publicist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.