Espreso. Global

Massive Russian losses, Ukraine’s army advances, secret military developments to attack Russia’s territory. Weekly military results

27 January, 2024 Saturday

The General Staff regularly notes in its reports that the bridgehead is being expanded. At the moment, certain areas on the left bank of the Dnipro are being held, in particular Krynky and nearby areas. Russia has been trying to push Ukraine's marines out for a long time, and as a result, it is suffering huge losses. Ukraine destroyed at least 200 Russian armored vehicles in this area, using artillery and drones

Situation in Kherson region

A number of tasks are currently being performed. In particular, protecting the right bank from Russian shelling and holding back a certain number of Russia's personnel who are holding a certain group and not moving to other parts of the frontline. The most promising approaches are being used there with Ukrainian drones. Technical developments are being tested to minimize the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones and to deeply destroy Russia's forces that they are trying to pull up to displace Ukrainian marines.

To achieve more gains in this area, it is necessary to ensure the redeployment of forces and means. This is extremely difficult, especially now, when the weather is changing, Ukrainian boats have difficulty moving and drones are used as the main element of logistics support.

AFU advance in Zaporizhzhia region

Robotyne, Novoprokopivka, and Verbove are areas where counterattacks from both sides are constantly taking place. The situation on the map does not seem to be changing. However, it is known that to the west of Verbove, Ukraine's military pushed the adversary back within one forest belt. That is, despite Russia's attempts to provide pressure from the flanks on this "pocket", which cuts into the Russian defense, the situation is dynamic. This week there are changes in Ukraine's favor.

Putin says 600,000 Russian troops are fighting in Ukraine

During a live broadcast summarizing the results of the year, Putin said that the length of the contact line is more than 2,000 kilometers, and 617,000 people are in the combat zone.

It should be noted that at the previous press conference, Putin spoke about 500 thousand personnel. Later, Ukrainian intelligence reported that the number of Russian troops in the occupied territory is 462 thousand and 35 thousand of the Russian army. In total, this is about 500 thousand. Now Putin is for some reason raising this bar for the number of invaders on Ukrainian territory.

He is talking about a section of the front within 2,000 kilometers, that is, the section that now crosses the border between Russia and Ukraine in the north. In total, it is 2,000 kilometers, although the hottest zone of contact is within 850 kilometers.

In any case, the number of Russian troops increased significantly after the large-scale invasion. The front line has shrunk, which has led to a densification of Russia's troops and an increase in its forces in certain areas. Therefore, it is extremely difficult to conduct offensive actions now. This year will be a year of active defense, when Ukraine holds the front line using the best opportunities to carry out offensive actions. It makes no sense to go into a blind defense, it is dangerous, but active defense, when Ukraine's army carries out offensive actions that lead to a significant number of Russian losses, is what is likely to be implemented this year. Increasing assistance from the West in ammunition and weapons is now becoming an urgent issue that is still slowing down the activity of Ukraine's troops in certain areas.

Situation on eastern front line

Marinka and Novomykhailivka are the most active areas. More clashes took place there today than near Avdiivka. At the same time, Avdiivka also remains a tense element of the frontline.

Russia's attempts since October last year to launch attacks from the north and south on Stepove and Sieverne to ensure the capture and encirclement of Ukraine's forces have actually failed. The supply line through Horlivka is working quite effectively, despite the fact that the Russian troops are trying to shell it. However, Russia is conducting frontline attacks, in particular near Tsarska Okhota (hotel and entertainment complex - ed.) 

Fighting for Tsarska Okhota area

But on January 17 this year, Russia used, let's say, the effect of military surprise. That is, they actually spent some time clearing a tunnel that runs under the Tsarska Okhota and then goes behind Ukrainian positions. The tunnel is up to 2 kilometers long and 1.5 meters wide, and they had been clearing it for quite a long time. And on January 17, they finally reached the surface. It was a surprise for the Ukrainian military. The Russian enemy took advantage of this, and Ukrainian military lost some of their positions. They tried to move through these buildings, along Sportyvna and Soborna streets, towards Avdiivka.

Map of fighting in Avdiivka area

On January 20, counterattacks by Ukrainian brigades began, and the Russian units were driven out. Later, the Russian troops counterattacked again and lost the positions it had captured due to that unexpected effect. But the area remains extremely difficult. Fighting continues on Soborna, Sportyvna, and in the buildings. There were even periods when, immediately after this unexpected attack, the Russian army made its way to the ninth quarter, which is actually the southern part of Avdiivka, where there are nine-storey buildings. In fact, if Russia's forces were to gain a foothold there, it would turn the format of the fighting into combat operations in urban areas. This is a rather dangerous scenario. When Ukraine now has the advantage in terms of using drones and artillery, Russia's losses were 1 to 10 when they tried to enter Avdiivka. The ratio of losses in urban areas is usually 1 to 1.

That is why Ukraine is now strengthening its units, and the dynamics around Tsarska Okhota complex remain difficult. It is difficult to make predictions, because in any case, every factor can influence events. 

Today, holding Avdiivka is even more important than holding Bakhmut at one time. Avdiivka is close to Donetsk, and Russia is using it as a base hub to reinforce its forces. In fact, they will now try to continue to put pressure, precisely because of the frontal actions from the south, in the direction of Avdiivka.

Threat along entire perimeter of Avdiivka

This semi-arc around Avdiivka has been a hot spot for four months now, but there is no closure. When talking about the north, Stepove, Novobakhmutivka, Russia's attempts to move north are an attempt to expand the overhang over the logistics route that currently supplies Avdiivka.  In fact, the advance in the north, the very top of Ukraine's map, is absolutely insignificant. Recently, the 47th Brigade from Stepove conducted active counterattacks using the well-known Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. Russia is not even using equipment at this time, trying to attack Stepove and Berdychi with manpower.  There are certain regroupings of forces, where they are accumulating forces to act with a new wave of attacks in the south and north, so that there is a certain depletion of Russian forces.

Kupyansk district, Kharkiv region

The fighting continues, Ukrainian fighters have left the village of Krokhmalne. There are some panic messages saying that there is an extremely big threat to Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi itself.

Krokhmalne is located between Kupyansk and Svatove, it is a populated town where there were five or six houses that have long been destroyed. The command reported that, given the fact that it was impossible to hold these positions, there was a retreat to areas a little further west. In any case, this partially poses a threat to certain areas near Krokhmalne, but it does not systematically affect the front line. Russia's systemic efforts are now an offensive in the north and in the south. In the north, it is an attack on Kupyansk, through Synkivka. For three months now, they have been reaching Synkivka, but they are being destroyed by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.  There is a potential threat to the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this area, but we see that there is no Russia's advance in the future.

Map of fighting in Kupyansk direction

Near Kupyansk, Svatove and Kreminna, the Russian army wants to push Ukrainian troops to the right bank of the Oskil River. The Russian Federation believes that if all the bridges there are bombed, there will be pressure, a problem with logistics, and then the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have to withdraw.  Theoretically, such a scenario is possible, but in practice we see that there are no changes.

Strikes on Russian territory

The situation is slowly changing so that the war is moving to Russia's territory. For this purpose, we have more means of domestic production. When we talk about Russia's oil terminals in the Baltic Sea, their distance from Ukrainian positions is more than 1,200 kilometers.

This suggests that we already have effective means that can inflict significant damage on Russia's energy facilities that supply the Russian economy and Russian troops. These terminals are extremely important to the Russian enemy.

The Minister of Strategic Industries of Ukraine, Oleksandr Kamyshin, said that Ukraine already has drones with this range that work effectively. This is likely to scale up the production of such drones, there will be much more of them, and this will allow Ukraine to ensure influence on the Russian Federation.

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