ISW names what threats Russian army anticipates and where it entrenched

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shared its report on the Russian offensive campaign.

"The Russian military clearly assesses that Ukrainian forces could cross the Dnipro River and conduct counter-offensive operations in eastern Kherson Oblast, possibly threatening all of the critical ground lines of communications (GLOCs) from Crimea to the mainland," ISW writes.

Russian troops are preparing either to defend in depth or to conduct operational or strategic delay operations. The ISW emphasizes that Russian forces clearly do not expect that they will be able to prevent Ukrainian troops from crossing the Dnipro River, and they also do not prioritize defensive positions that would stop such a crossing.

However, they are setting conditions for a protracted defense in the eastern Kherson region, which may allow the establishment of a solid Ukrainian lodgment on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River.

Russian troops are strengthening their positions along critical contact lines in the eastern Kherson region to protect against a possible future Ukrainian counteroffensive, experts add.

Satellite images show that Russian troops are giving priority to digging trenches and erecting dragon’s teeth anti-tank defences along GLOCs that connect Russian troops on the eastern (left) bank of the Dnipro River with the southeastern rear areas in the Kherson region and Crimea and with the eastern rear areas around Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia region.

According to ISW experts, most of these field fortifications are located directly on the GLOCs and are mostly oriented perpendicular to the roads themselves. This makes them appear more like elaborate roadblocks rather than parts of cohesive defensive lines.

"Russian troops have also heavily fortified a 3km-wide strip of land separating the Kinburn spit from the mainland Kherson region and along the beaches immediately south and east of the strip," the report says.

Defensive positions indicate that the Russian military leadership considers the prospect of a Ukrainian counteroffensive across the Dnipro River as a serious threat, the Institute claims.

Most of the Russian field fortifications in the eastern Kherson region, however, are optimized for defense against drives along the roads and would be very vulnerable if surrounded in open terrain.

The Institute notes that many fortifications along roads do not extend far beyond the roads themselves, often just far enough to provide good fields of fire on either side of the road itself. Most of these positions have open flanks that end in the middle of the fields.

Many of these positions are not within tactical supporting distance of each other, making each of them vulnerable to the Ukrainian tactical envelopments.

Experts believe that Russian troops may try to delay (slow down) rather than stop the Ukrainian offensive on the eastern (left) bank of the Dnipro River in order to deploy more reinforcements. However, Ukrainian counteroffensives sometimes developed much rapidly than they could deploy their reinforcements.

Russian efforts to prepare extensive defensive positions in the eastern Kherson region, regardless of how well or poorly executed they are, underscore the critical importance of this area for the further course of the war.

The ISW adds that if Ukrainian forces gain a foothold in the eastern Kherson region, they may threaten an additional counteroffensive toward Melitopol from the west, which Russian troops will likely struggle to defend against.

The experts add that “ISW offers no forecast of future Ukrainian operations and makes no assessment of Ukrainian capabilities to conduct the counter-offensive operations discussed above. The Russian military, however, clearly regards a Ukrainian counter-offensive across the Dnipro and/or via the Kinburn Spit as possible and very dangerous.”