Invasion from Belarus isn't excluded, but it won't affect course of war - military expert Chernyk

A military expert gave a comment to Espreso about the possibility of a false-flag attack by Belarus with the aim of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

“Anything can happen. The Russians have no rules, so it is very difficult to fight them. As for a possible land invasion by Belarus, I do not rule it out, but in my opinion, the probability is 50:50. Let's remember that the Russian forces have already entered Ukraine at the beginning of the full-scale invasion from Belarus, precisely in the Chornobyl zone, with a rather large corps and even dug in in the Red Forest. In order for their ground contingent to be truly serious for us, they need to have a corps numbering at least 40,000, and at the moment they have barely 15,000,” the expert noted.

Petro Chernyk continued that the 40,000-strong corps should have at least 825 tanks, 2,500 armored vehicles, and 900 artillery barrels, which are not there. And most importantly, they must have air cover, and today none of their vehicles will enter our airspace with impunity, as all will be shot down without exception.

“In addition, we have a new Mannerheim line (a strip of fortifications named after the Commander-in-Chief of the Finnish troops in the Soviet-Finnish war Carl Gustaf Mannerheim - ed.). If they dare to commit such an act of suicide, and it will be precisely an act of suicide from their side, then we will simply grind them down. We will have to divert some of our forces and means, but the course of the war will not be affected in any way. They do it primarily as an informational and psychological operation because we have been talking about it for 10 months and keep this threatening narrative in our information field. And to a certain extent, they achieve our fatigue, which entails mistakes, and this must be understood. I don't know how it will actually be. Lukashenko is fanatically fighting for his survival because he has nowhere to run but China, but he still needs to get there physically,” Chernyk noted.

• On December 20, the Ukrainian Aed Forces' General Staff reported that the military of Belarus and the Russian Federation continue to be near the borders with Ukraine.

• On December 21, the Center of National Resistance reported that Russian mercenaries could simulate shelling of Belarus from Ukraine.

• On December 22, UK intelligence named the new role of the Belarusian army in Russia's war against Ukraine.