Espreso. Global

Battle for Avdiivka will impact Ukrainian counteroffensive, irrespective of Russian gains

15 October, 2023 Sunday

Regardless of whether Russian troops succeed in capturing Avdiivka, Donetsk region, or not, it will still have a negative impact on the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south

The Economist reported the information.

It noted that the offensive on the frontline Avdiivka, which Russia launched on October 9, is one of its largest steps since last spring, which aimed to create a “cauldron” around Ukrainian defenders and change the narrative of the war to one in which the initiative is again shifted to Russia.

No doubt, Russia has allocated significant resources to this operation. Ukrainian officials claim that up to three battalions have been deployed to Avdiivka. They are supported by tanks, armored personnel carriers and aircraft launching precision guided "glide bombs" from a distance.

"Just as Ukraine throughout the summer has found breaking down well-prepared defenses extremely tough, so too the Russians appear to be taking heavy punishment in their assault on Avdiivka," the Economist writes.

It adds that Russia's territorial gains are still estimated at less than 5 square kilometers. 

The Economist admits that a hypothetical loss of Avdiivka would be a blow to Ukrainian morale. Like Bakhmut before it, the city has become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance. It has withstood 8 years of periodic attacks by Russian forces.

Over the past 18 months, Avdiivka has withstood a series of assaults and massive artillery shelling. In April, Russian attempts to surround the city were only partially successful. In response, Ukraine sent reserves to the area and created new, well-fortified defensive positions. They are located next to a 200-meter-long spoil heap created by the Avdiivka Coke Plant (one of the largest coke producers in Europe before the war).

According to the US government, Russia's offensive ambitions may intensify in the coming weeks following the arrival of 300 shipping containers of ammunition. These arms shipments were completed on October 1. Officials say the shipment included a large number of artillery rounds that could have a major impact on the battlefield. The Ukrainian counteroffensive has relied on massive supplies of shells from South Korea, and the intensity of the fire will inevitably decrease in the coming months.

"The fight for the coke plant and the ash dump is likely to be hard and bitter in the days ahead. Whether or not Avdiivka falls to the Russians, it is still likely to have a negative effect on the continuing Ukrainian counter-offensive in the south," the Economist suggests.

They also emphasize that progress in this area has slowed down since Robotyne's liberation in August. Western officials are skeptical that the front line will change before the onset of winter. If Ukraine has to reinforce the Avdiivka front, it may have to redeploy some of the forces fighting south of Orikhiv. This would further reduce the chances of a breakthrough before winter.

Russian offensive on the key city of Avdiivka in eastern Donetsk region

On October 11, the Institute for the Study of War noted that the Russian occupying army had intensified its offensive around Avdiivka in the Donetsk region. The city has been a frontline one for almost 10 years, and now Russian troops are trying to encircle it.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that in the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces repelled 10 attacks near Avdiivka and another 8 attacks east of Stepove and southeast of Sieverne in the Donetsk region.

The head of Avdiivka City Military Administration, Vitaliy Barabash, reported shelling of Avdiivka, Donetsk region, which killed an elderly man and wounded two civilians.

On October 12, experts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) named the real reasons for the Russian offensive on Avdiivka.

Vitaliy Barabash, head of the Avdiivka City Military Administration, noted that Russian troops are trying to concentrate their forces north of the city, launching assault operations.

On October 13, the ISW reported that in three days, Russian troops had captured 4.52 square kilometers of territory from different directions near Avdiivka. The occupying Russian army suffered significant losses in equipment and manpower. 

Read also:
  • News
2023, Thursday
30 November
Russia attacks Donetsk region with S-300 missiles, injuring at least 10 people
Ukrainian army destroys 13 Russian tanks, 28 vehicles, 1,180 soldiers per day - General Staff
Powerful explosion in Bryansk, Russia: warehouse with Shaheds is hit
ISW: Ukrainian forces advance on east bank of Kherson region, send reinforcements
2023, Wednesday
29 November
Victorious news of 644th day of war: Russian general killed, invading forces destroyed in Kherson region
Ukraine's missile forces hit 3 Russian control points, 2 munitions depots — General Staff
Russian occupation authorities try 25-year-old Ukrainian who came to Mariupol to visit grandmother
Russian forces have no chance in Kupyansk sector - Ukrainian lieutenant colonel
Ukraine inherited USSR agents: journalist Portnikov on Budanov's wife poisoning
Moscow-backed Orthodox Church leader Pavel Lebed's house arrest extended
Blocking Ukraine border is blunt politics designed for interim period — Polish politician
Mobilization of 86-year-old woman from Bakhmut: Russia spreads fake about Ukraine
Bellingcat investigates poisoning of Ukrainian intelligence chief's wife
NATO provides recommendations on Ukraine’s priority reforms
Russian army is constantly attacking Avdiivka in agony: AFU officer on frontline situation
Ukraine in Russia's propaganda mirror
EU Transport Council to discuss blockade on Polish-Ukrainian border
Comparison of international, Ukrainian sanctions against individuals and entities supporting Russian aggression
Russian airbase hit in Crimea at night. Video
Stoltenberg backs Ukrainian General Staff's info on Russian army losses
Mobile groups targeting Shaheds show high efficiency despite difficult weather conditions — military expert Zgurets
Russian troops significantly increase activity in Tavria direction, deploying armored vehicles
"The more weapons, the longer war will last": Szijjártó confirms Hungary's refusal to help Ukraine
November 23-29 live war map: record elimination of Russian troops near Avdiivka, drones in Moscow
Czech MPs approve extension of Ukrainian military training for next year
Winter in Ukraine and sanctions against Rosatom. Interview with Alan Riley, Professor at the College of Europe
Poisoning of Ukraine spy chief's wife signals Russia's ability to reach anyone's family - military observer Kovalenko
Ukrainian troops destroy Russian APC, trench EW system, anti-drone gun and more: video
Unblocking border benefits both Ukraine and Poland: Mykola Knyazhytskyi on blockade’s impact on state relations and Ukrainian defense capabilities
Ukraine Intelligence Chief's wife was poisoned with arsenic and mercury - sources
Zaporizhzhia locals refuse collaboration as Russians lack administrative staff, says Regional Council member Ashurbekov
Ukraine's troops attack building with Russian militants in Kherson region: 5 invaders eliminated
Weather isn't primary factor influencing pace of hostilities – military expert Serhiy Zgurets
Russia increases use of cluster bombs — British intelligence
Russian troops suffer up to 95% of losses in assaults - National Guard Major Nahornyi
"We are ready": Russia's Foreign Ministry says war with NATO is possible
25 Ukrainian truckers blocked at border agree to evacuate from Poland — Ministry of Infrastructure
Russia attacks Ukraine with drones: agricultural enterprise damaged in Khmelnytskyi region
Ukrainian troops eliminate 1,140 Russian soldiers, 15 tanks, 32 artillery systems in 24 hrs
Russia claims Ukrainian drone attack in Moscow region
More news