Espreso. Global

"Russia's priority is not to lose the war": Lithuania responds to Bild-published scenario in case of Ukraine's loss

17 January, 2024 Wednesday

The German army has developed a war scenario if Ukraine loses. An escalation between NATO and Russia could allegedly take place as early as February

Bild reports this with reference to a secret document of the German Defense Ministry.

"An escalation between NATO and Russia could happen as early as February. This is a training scenario that describes step by step, month by month, how Putin will act and how NATO will defend itself. According to the Bundeswehr's scenario, the escalation will begin in just a few weeks. Fighting will soon begin, and tens of thousands of German soldiers will be involved," Bild writes.

According to the scenario published by the publication, Russia launches a new wave of mobilization and conscripts another 200,000 people in February. In the spring, the Kremlin launches a major offensive in Ukraine and defeats the Ukrainian army by June 2024.

Further, according to the document, interethnic clashes will begin in the Baltic States, and Russia will launch a major military exercise, West 2024, in September on its territory and in Belarus.

In October, according to the scenario, Russia deploys troops and missiles to Kaliningrad to strike at the Suwalki corridor.

In December, the publication writes, immediately after the US elections, a border conflict and riots break out there. The Russian Federation is trying to take advantage of the possible paralysis of the US political system. In January 2025, Poland and the Baltic states convene a meeting of the NATO Council and announce a threat from Russia, which in March deploys additional troops to Belarus and the borders of the Baltic states.

Further, according to the document, in May 2025, NATO decides on credible deterrence measures to prevent Russia from attacking the Suwalki Corridor.

On Day X, the NATO commander orders the deployment of 300,000 troops, including 30,000 Germans, to the eastern flank.

Bild emphasizes that this scenario is the legend of NATO's 2024 Baltic exercise. The Bundeswehr said that considering different scenarios, even extremely unlikely ones, is part of everyday military affairs.

What the Bundeswehr says

Mitko Müller, a spokesman for the German Defense Ministry, said he could not comment on the Bild publication.

"In principle, I can neither confirm nor deny this media report," Ukrinform quoted him as saying.

Müller emphasized that the German military leadership takes the threat seriously, so it is conducting various exercises to improve the army's combat readiness.

He also noted that the decision to deploy the largest military brigade in Lithuania to deter Russia was made as a result of an analysis of the security situation.

"We would not have deployed this team there in the coming years if the threats were not real," Müller said.

NATO commented on the Bild article

Jānis Sārts, Director of NATO's Center of Excellence for Strategic Communications, responded to the article with a post on Twitter.

"Bild received a training scenario, which is always an imaginary situation to test military capabilities in a particular area. Once upon a time, the scenarios were completely fictional with non-existent countries and geographical areas. Existing countries and geographical regions are now more applicable," he wrote.

He also noted that "this is not a secret intelligence that predicts the development of the situation.”

Russia's priority is not to lose the war: Lithuania responds to the scenario in case of Ukraine's loss, published by Bild

The Lithuanian Ministry of Defense believes that as long as fighting continues in Ukraine, Russia does not have the resources to open a second front. Russia's priority is not to lose this war, Delfi reports.

"While the war in Ukraine is ongoing, it is challenging to assume that Russia will redistribute its priorities and begin consolidating forces in other directions," commented the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense.

According to the ministry, Russia is planning a long-term increase in forces in the western region: "To achieve this, Russia has developed plans to expand infrastructure and military units, is carrying out infrastructure changes, and dividing command areas."

"Russia maintains significant capabilities and consistently reinforces them near the front line in Ukraine. The current priority for Russia is not to lose in the war with Ukraine, and it allocates specific resources towards this goal," noted the military agency.

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