War in Ukraine set to redefine military textbooks

Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko provided insights into the warfare stereotypes that Ukraine has shattered since the start of the large-scale invasion.

Examples abound, such as an aggressor nation's naval defeat by a fleet-less country—a historical anomaly. Similarly, despite its formidable airborne component, the aggressor country managed only one successful airborne operation out of over 30 attempts.

Ukraine has shattered prevailing defense stereotypes. One such stereotype claims that a defender must possess threefold or greater numerical superiority to break through enemy lines.

“Ukraine employed precisely this tactic in 2022. Through exclusively defensive maneuvers in the initial weeks of the invasion, we managed to halt the progress of Russian troops. Despite their numerical and technological superiority, our actions not only stemmed their advance but also inflicted significant losses, ultimately forcing them to retreat,” the expert explained.

However, the operation in the Zaporizhzhia region challenges this very stereotype. Ukraine’s East group of troops, responsible for this region, presents a striking picture of defense potential. With up to 105,000 personnel, 470 tanks (33% of standard), 1,410 TBMs (32% of standard), 720 artillery pieces (48%), and 230 MLRS (15%), the group efficiently defends against an ROV three times its size in personnel and resources.

This force, not including the Dnipro group holding the left bank of the Kherson region, defends against an enemy three times its size across multiple fronts.

“The first line of defense, the most difficult and most extreme, the Ukrainian Armed Forces broke through. Russian troops hastily mobilized reserves, began to pull together additional units of 49th Combined Arms Army and 68th Army Corps, unpacking strategic reserves. And yet, Ukrainian forces are advancing every day, pushing back the enemy,” the expert said.

Manpower

Though staffing may seem depleted—around 70% shortfall in some areas—these figures, despite relative deficiencies, are sufficient for defense. Crucially, Russia's attempts to fully staff its forces in the Zaporizhzhia region proved challenging due to limitations in their military-industrial complex.

This incapacity is evident in their struggle to compensate losses in artillery and air defense. While they may barely manage to replace 50% of losses in these sectors during active combat, even lesser proportions are achievable in air defense, not to mention staffing newly formed units.

“This proves once again that the Russian army has lost its offensive potential and can only perform a rather mediocre defense function. Therefore, when I hear from someone about Russia's upcoming large-scale offensive, I can only facepalm. In contrast, the Ukrainian army has shattered yet another stereotype. Having more than triple superiority in defense in almost all indicators and impassable defense lines, the Russian army is not capable of holding back the Ukrainian offensive and will not be able to. And this operation will go down in the textbooks,” the expert concludes.