Russia may run out of Su-34 frontline bombers

Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military and political observer, analyzed Russia’s aircraft capabilities.

Unverified reports suggest that the Russian Air Force has suffered over 50 Su-34s being destroyed or damaged over the past two years.

The outset of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Air Force had 110 Su-34s operational, with fewer than 100 deemed combat-ready.

“Meanwhile, Russia maintains its production of Su-34s, capable of churning out a squadron annually, roughly 10 to 12 aircraft, or one per month. However, should Su-34 losses escalate to 2-3 aircraft per month, production may struggle to keep pace, resulting in a net loss over time. But there's more to consider beyond mere numbers,” explains the observer.

The downing of a Su-34 often entails a high likelihood of the pilot's fatality. While the military-industrial complex can construct the aircraft relatively swiftly, the training and development of skilled pilots require 5 to 10 years of rigorous instruction, drills, and practice.

“Moreover, even if a pilot successfully ejects, survival upon landing is not guaranteed. Russian pilot seats are designed in such a way that pilots frequently get neck, spine, or limb injuries upon impact with the ground,” the observer stressed.

Taken together, these factors suggest that sustained losses of Su-34s could potentially pose a significant challenge for the Russian military, particularly concerning their primary aircraft for dropping guided aerial bombs.