Russia’s plans falter as war budget soars for 2025. Serhiy Zgurets' column

Visit of the Ukrainian delegation to the United States

On September 24, Russia attacked Kharkiv with guided missiles from three Su-34 aircraft based in Russia's Belgorod region. There are wounded and dead Ukrainian citizens. Given this, it was quite surprising to read publications, in particular in the Washington Post, that the United States is still debating whether to give Ukraine permission to strike deep into Russian territory.

This publication comes as the Ukrainian delegation is visiting the United States to present the Ukraine Victory Plan. This plan should force Russia to a stable and just peace. By the way, President Joe Biden spoke about such a just peace in his speech at the UN General Assembly, mentioning Ukraine. The logic of his speech implies that approaches that can ensure such justice must be implemented, and it can only be ensured by weapons.

The Washington Post writes that there is no indication that the White House will change its position on the use of long-range weapons against Russian military targets. However, Kyiv still hopes that during the visit to the United States, it will be possible to change such approaches. Especially since the main emphasis is on the Victory Plan, critical and important actions are expected to be taken between October and December of this year.

Russia is increasing its budget for war

In turn, Russia is counting on its strategy of a grueling and long-term war, as evidenced by the aggressor country's draft budget for next year, which has already been analyzed by Bloomberg. Next year, Russia is expected to increase defense spending by 25%. And this defense budget will reach almost RUB 13.5 trillion. In total, spending on these categories, including national defense, national security, and law enforcement, will account for 40% of total budget expenditures. And all of this is more than spending on education, healthcare, social policy, and the national economy taken together.

We can see what Russia's priorities are - the war comes first. But is everything going according to plan? It is interesting that when the Russian budget for the current year was adopted in 2023, according to forecasts and estimates, it was said that in 2025 Russia would reduce spending on military needs. But, as we can see, this is not happening, which is proof that not everything is going according to plan in Russia.

This, by the way, was also recognized by the head of Ukraine's Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, when he analyzed what was happening in Russia a few days ago. He said that Russia expects to win in 2025. Because it is in the second half of next year that critical moments begin that are related to social stability in Russia and the provision of weapons. That is why we are now seeing accelerated actions with the adoption of such expanded budgets and actions on the front line to gain a foothold in any part of the front.

We understand that Russia still has money. First and foremost, it has money from hydrocarbon exports, despite the fact that sanctions seem to be in place. Against this backdrop, in order to reduce Russia's potential, it is extremely important to impose a complete embargo on trade with Russia in all sectors. This would probably provide significant restrictions on Russia's actions.

Losses of Russian equipment are growing

Russia is already struggling to replenish its weapons stockpiles. Analysts have assessed Russia's tank reserves from 2022 to 2024 and found that nearly half of the older equipment and weaponry has already been withdrawn from storage. This indicates that Russia's defense industry is unable to produce new tanks at the necessary pace, relying instead on refurbishing Soviet-era stockpiles—an approach that is increasingly unsustainable.

It is crucial to implement countermeasures aimed at increasing Russian losses through various means, including long-range weaponry. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have demonstrated this capability on the battlefield and within Russian territory, particularly with recent successful strikes on Russian military depots. This week, several effective attacks resulted in significant losses for the Russian military. According to Estonian intelligence, more than 750,000 rounds of ammunition were destroyed, leading some experts to speculate that this could hinder Russia's military operations in the coming two months.

Production of Ukrainian drones

It is essential that the coordinated efforts of both political leaders and military officials focus on eliminating any hope for Russia to achieve victory on the front lines. Ukrainian defense companies play a vital role in this strategy, not only by utilizing foreign weaponry but also by deploying their own systems. One notable development is the use of Ukrainian first-person view (FPV) drones to target Russian reconnaissance drones. In the past, the Ukrainian army faced significant challenges when Russian drones like Orlan, ZALA, and Supercam operated deep within Ukrainian territory, relaying critical data to Iskander missile systems. This intelligence led to strikes on important Ukrainian targets, underscoring the need for effective countermeasures against such threats.

Now a solution has been found, when Ukrainian FPV drones effectively destroy Russian reconnaissance drones, blinding their reconnaissance and strike systems that Russia boasted about. And not only reconnaissance drones are being destroyed, but also Lancets. More and more videos are emerging of Ukrainian FPV drones catching up with Russian Lancets and blowing up or knocking these drones off course.

At some point, Russia began to boast that they had “copied” the Ukrainian practice of destroying reconnaissance drones. They posted a video showing that their FPV drone had caught up with the Ukrainian Furia unmanned aerial vehicle. And they were allegedly able to destroy the drone and disrupt the mission that Ukrainian drone was performing to reconnoiter and adjust fire.

Artem Viunnyk, director of Athlon Avia, spoke about the air battle between the Russian FPV and Furia, noting that the Ukrainian drone returned home slightly damaged, it was not destroyed. It is clear that Russia will continue to develop its capabilities and attack Ukrainian drones more and more often, so we are working on how to counter such approaches. The damage that Ukrainian UAV sustained was not critical, the electronics were in good condition and the Furia drone made several turns after the fall, leveled out and continued its horizontal flight, which was the same as before the encounter with the enemy drone. However, we cannot say that this happened because of some kind of super survivability of Ukrainian aircraft, so we need to think and develop countermeasures.

The director of Athlon Avia noted that by the end of the year they plan to replace the aircraft, which has been the main element of the Furia complex for 10 years. It has been performing quite effectively on the battlefield all these years, but the situation is changing, the capabilities of our artillery are growing, and we have long-range systems that require different characteristics of the spotters that accompany the firing. The Furia has a very powerful potential for development, so the airframe will actually be a platform for new capabilities.The Furia-2 boasts nearly double the capacity of its predecessor, and its larger internal volume enables the installation of equipment that has been anticipated for some time. We can expect to see this UAV operational soon, and discussions will follow regarding its successes and accomplishments in the field.

Viunnyk noted that the new aircraft is designed to remain airborne for over six hours. The prototype, which was recently tested, demonstrated impressive results with a flight duration of 5.5 hours. The production models are expected to perform even better, ensuring a reliable six hours of operation on the battlefield.

The head of a Ukrainian research and production enterprise noted that the current production load is not bad, but there is a problem with planning in the country. It's a pity to see that only in September they collect the needs for the fourth quarter of this year. This is inexplicable, because there is logistics that takes months, and there is also a technological cycle. Unfortunately, there is still no understanding of what we will do in 2025, because since June the company should have been working on purchasing components to have supplies in January next year.