Missile attack on Poltava, new tests of Russian Wunderwaffe. Column by Serhiy Zgurets

Missile attack on Poltava

Let me start with a tragic event. Today, on September 3, the Russian army attacked an educational institution in Poltava, the Institute of Communications, and a neighboring hospital with two ballistic missiles. As a result of this attack, 51 people are known to have been killed and more than 200 wounded. We express our condolences to the families of the victims.

The President of Ukraine ordered an investigation, but the Ministry of Defense reported that the time interval between the air raid alert and the ballistic missile approach was so short that it caught people evacuating to the bomb shelter.

To stop this terror, Zelenskyy said that we need air defense systems and missiles now, not in a warehouse somewhere. We also need weapons for long-range strikes right now.

American long-range missiles AGM-158 JASSM

In this context, some encouraging news comes from Reuters, which, citing a number of its sources, claims that the US long-range AGM-158 JASSM missiles may be included in one of the defense packages to be announced by the US this fall. It is also emphasized that no exact decision has been made on the delivery of these missiles, but it is quite close to such a decision.

Let me remind you that the AGM-158 missile has a range of 370 km, a powerful warhead, significant accuracy and can be used despite enemy electronic warfare. In addition, this missile is fired from F-16 aircraft. It is extremely important that along with the missiles, we receive permission to use these weapons against targets deep in the territory of the Russian Federation. These are not only airfields, but also carriers or launch platforms for ballistic Iskanders, North Korean KN-23s, and Iranian ballistic missiles that Moscow wants to get from Tehran.

Russia's Wunderwaffe

And Russia seems to be preparing for another test of a new or old nuclear-powered cruise missile called the Burevestnik. Putin boasted about this missile back in 2018 that he had created a Wunderwaffe (wonder weapon) that cannot be shot down by air defense systems and can circle the earth continuously until the right moment of attack. But let me remind you that in two years, out of 14 tests of this missile, only 2 were more or less successful. And among the unsuccessful ones was the explosion of the nuclear reactor on the Burevestnik missile.

Reuters reports that Russia has started some operations with this missile again, citing two American scientists who examined satellite images and found a new test site 400 kilometers from Moscow with certain equipment. They concluded that the site was created for testing or launching the Burevestnik missile. If this “flying Chornobyl” takes off, even with a nuclear reactor, it will be a subsonic cruise missile that can be shot down by air defense, just like the Kh-101 cruise missile.

Kursk region

Meanwhile, Western experts are discussing the course of the fighting in Ukraine. The well-known and influential Foreign Affairs magazine has published a good analytical article by two well-known experts, Michael Kofman and Robert Lee, on the course and consequences of the Ukrainian military operations in the Kursk region. The article is interesting, and we will refer to it again in our assessments.

But for now, I will cite one of the experts' conclusions, which is that the Kursk offensive is a creative solution that allows avoiding a symmetric fight against a numerically superior opponent. However, Kyiv will have to choose whether to gain the positions it has or to invest more scarce resources in the operation, meaning the forces and means of our brigades, to force Russia to make much greater efforts to counter.

And the best-case scenario for Ukraine, according to Michael Kofman and Robert Lee, is for Ukrainian troops to hold back Russia in Donbas with relatively little advance and hold the Kursk bridgehead. If Ukraine manages to hold on to part of the Kursk region, survive attacks on energy infrastructure, and expand the scope and depth of its positions in Russian territory, experts believe that Kyiv's position will look strong, which in turn will help in future negotiations on ways to end the war.

The worst-case scenario is that if in a few months Ukraine loses significant areas of land in the east and does not retain any territory in the Kursk region, it will complicate and eliminate the possibility of using this achievement as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Russia. But these are just estimates, and only practice is the criterion of truth, as foreign experts themselves recognize.

And when we evaluate practice and talk about the fighting in the Kursk region, during the Ukrainian Armed Forces' offensive in Kursk, we saw good cooperation between new and old brigades. By the way, when we talk about a new brigade, I'll mention the 49th Engineer Assault Brigade. This is a newly created military unit that was the first to break through fortifications and minefields in the Kursk region. This brigade used remote-controlled charges to make passages in minefields where equipment was moving.

Ukraine will have to carry out similar work in other areas of Russian defense. We understand that before the military can enter the cleared passage, sappers will have to go before them, and they will have to ensure the safety of these corridors with their own hands and special personal equipment.

Ukrainian defense industry developments for the Armed Forces of Ukraine

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have begun using new demining kits for first-line sappers. These kits were developed by the Ukrainian Research Institute of Defense Technologies.

Anton Semenov, head of the Ukrainian Research Institute of Defense Technologies, said that the kit was designed to enable the Ukrainian Armed Forces to make passages in minefields during offensive operations. When the Ukrainian military is moving forward, of course, they encounter minefields that need to be cleared very quickly and carefully. This is not humanitarian demining, it is military demining. That is why we have developed this kit, which includes a small sapper probe, special sapper markings, special stakes that glow red and green, special checks, a device for removing and activating tension and burst sensors of targets in mines. As for codification, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has assigned a NATO code, which means that this kit is available in Alliance catalogs and is approved for use.

The head of the Ukrainian Research Institute of Defense Technologies added that this demining kit is exclusively a Ukrainian development, made only of Ukrainian components. Today, about 500 kits are already in use by our Defense and Security Forces. Now the company has an order for a new batch of kits, and then, after production, these kits will be sent to various units of the Armed Forces. In addition, the company is starting to cooperate with foreign funds.

The Ukrainian developer noted that the development of a three-part sapper probe, which can also be used in humanitarian demining, has been completed. 55 sets have already been manufactured, some of which have been sent for trial operation and are now being used by the National Police, the Security Service of Ukraine, representatives of the military intelligence, engineering and demining units of the State Special Transport Service and the National Guard.

Semenov noted that at foreign arms exhibitions, representatives of the Armed Forces of Italy, France, and Turkey approached the booth of the Ukrainian Research Institute of Defense Technologies, interested in possible purchases of these kits. Negotiations were also held with representatives of the Ministry of Defense of Canada, and a meeting with a delegation from the Polish Ministry of Defense is scheduled. So there is hope that new contracts will be signed. However, the most important task is to supply the Armed Forces of Ukraine.