Lukashenko deploys troops to Ukraine's border

Under the guise of exercises, servicemen from the Special Operations Forces of the Republic of Belarus are being deployed near the border with Ukraine. Additionally, there is a significant presence of engineering equipment, air defense systems, and former mercenaries from the Wagner Group.

As we know, following the so-called agreements between Lukashenko and Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Wagner, which ended with Prigozhin's demise, some of the Wagner mercenaries were relocated to Belarus.

Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has warned that if the Lukashenko regime continues its hostile actions, Ukraine reserves the right to defend itself, especially if Belarusian troops cross the Russian-Ukrainian border. They advised Lukashenko not to succumb to Moscow's pressure.

We know exactly what the Belarusian dictator is up to. His mission is to distract Ukraine's Armed Forces to worsen the situation in the Donetsk direction and especially in Russia's Kursk region.

As you may know, Vladimir Putin has given orders to his generals to drive Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region by October 1. This not only demands significant effort from the Russian military but also requires reducing the number of Ukrainian troops currently stationed there. Now, Lukashenko needs to create the illusion of a serious threat in northern Ukraine to force the Ukrainian military command to divert a substantial number of their reserves to that area.

And, by the way, we fully understand the value of the Belarusian leader's talk about the need for negotiations with Ukraine. His claims that there’s nothing left to fight over since Ukraine is already "denazified," as he mentioned in a recent interview with Russian TV, are all part of the act.

This is just a smokescreen, hiding the real aggressive intentions — not so much Lukashenko’s, but those of his handler, Putin. Putin has instructed him to create an image of an immediate threat to Ukraine in the north, alongside the so-called peaceful rhetoric. And you and I both know that this isn’t just a show of force.

Remember, it was from Belarusian territory that Russian forces launched their attacks on Kyiv, Chernihiv, and other Ukrainian cities in February 2022, marking the beginning of Putin's failed blitzkrieg.

But Lukashenko is playing with fire by agreeing to every whim of his Russian counterpart. The way Belarusian society views its dictator and his cronies is vastly different from how Russians view Vladimir Putin. The majority of Russians share their leader's imperial ambitions.

I’ve always pointed out that Putin speaks with the voice of Russian chauvinism, which makes him the unchallenged leader of the Russian Federation, as long as he continues his aggressive wars in the post-Soviet space.

Belarusian society sees the world differently. In 2020, the vast majority of Belarusians stood against their leader, who once again rigged the presidential election. Lukashenko had to deploy every bit of power from his long-established vertical structure to crush the people's protest.

But the hatred Belarusians feel toward Lukashenko and his supporters hasn't vanished. The country has become a place where repression is the norm for anyone who dares to seek freedom. As proven by numerous surveys, Belarusian society opposes the Russia-Ukraine war — they don't accept it. Part of why they see Lukashenko's regime as something inevitable is because he guarantees peace in a situation where both neighboring countries are at war.

But imagine if Lukashenko drags Belarus into a real war — if Ukrainian troops enter Belarus and push Belarusian units out of their own territory.

First, would the Belarusian army even be motivated to fight in Ukraine? I seriously doubt it. Second, would Belarusians still support Lukashenko's power structures if there were an alternative? And third, why is Lukashenko so sure that if his regime is in danger, Putin will step in and send his troops to Belarus? Where would Putin get enough troops to fight in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Kursk, while holding positions in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia?

It's possible that saving Lukashenko's regime won't even be on Putin's priority list—simply because, to do so, Putin would need extra resources, which he likely won't have when Lukashenko comes calling for help.

That's why, if I were the Belarusian dictator, I'd take a hard look at Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs' statement and think long and hard before getting involved in Putin's latest shameful adventure — one that could very well cost him his power, and maybe even his freedom. We all know what happens to dictators who are despised by their own people.

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About the author. Vitaly Portnikov, journalist, Shevchenko National Prize laureate

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.