Kursk campaign can change war

The author, Maria Devakhina, cites a statement by State Duma Deputy Alexei Chepa: "Russia must focus on preemptive strikes to prevent attacks on its territory. We need to work on these strikes and implement the tasks set by President Vladimir Putin regarding the conditions for peace negotiations. It's also crucial to consider how the Ukrainian Armed Forces receive their weapons. We must deprive the Ukrainian forces of the ability to transport cargo across the Dnipro River to prevent the supply of arms... This must not be allowed. Additionally, the Ukrainian Armed Forces likely have bases near the Russian border, from which drones can be launched to strike our territory."

The Kremlin's information machinery is in a state of alarm. The liberation of parts of the Kursk region from Moscow's control and the penetration of Ukrainian forces into historical Ukrainian lands, which Russia claimed 100 years ago, expose the incompetence of the Putin regime.

“Putin is repeating the same logistical mistakes as Tsar Nicholas II, who tried to single-handedly command the Russian army. The Russian Federation, having occupied part of Ukrainian territory, is unable to protect what it considers its own, highlighting the paradox of Putin's war in Ukraine.”

The comments of Russian experts who attempt to analyze what is happening are interesting. Some of them put it this way: “There are failures that cannot be avoided. The Russian army could not keep a large enough group in the Kursk region to prevent this provocation.”

Why couldn't it protect its own? But it could keep its terrorist forces in Ukraine, attempting to completely seize its lands? Leave our territories and defend your own. Yet, Putin refuses to abandon the occupied areas, even under the real threat of losing his own. The Kremlin is choosing not to preserve the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation but to destroy Ukrainian statehood.

It will be interesting to see when Russia starts recalling the interview with Colonel General of the GRU, Ivashov, given a few months before the start of the Great War on February 24, 2022. Everything that is happening in Russia now and what will unfold after its defeat was predicted by him in advance. This illustrates the consequences of ignoring professionals and heeding the sycophants and opportunists that the Russian dictator surrounds himself with.

Battling the Russians on their own territory is exactly what could push Russian society to realize that the war is not just something they have seen on television for the past 900 days. It has shifted from being a virtual screen experience to a harsh reality, which they find deeply unsettling. However, for us, the key point is that Ukrainians have moved from a defensive to an offensive stance against a superior enemy force. This fundamentally changes the dynamics of the war with Russia.

“Until recently, the Kremlin believed that the Russian Federation had the right to invade Ukrainian territories, while Ukrainian entry onto Russian lands was strictly taboo. Now, with the liberation of the Kursk region, the situation is changing. De facto, the restrictions on Ukrainian military operations in enemy territory are being lifted. One can hope that this is just the beginning, and soon all restrictions on the use of American and European weapons in the Russo-Ukrainian war will be removed.”

It is puzzling that Russians at the UN, on their television, and in the media call the presence of Ukrainian forces in Kursk a "terrorist invasion." Where is the logic in this? When the Russian Federation invades Ukrainian territories, kills civilians, and destroys infrastructure, it is termed a "special operation." Yet, when we begin to rectify the border with Russia, it is labeled as terrorism. Moscow needs to clarify the rationale behind their actions.

The approaches of Ukrainians and Russians towards prisoners of war are fundamentally different. While Russians torture and kill captured Ukrainians, Ukrainian forces show humanity towards the Russian soldiers who are surrendering in large numbers in Kursk. Instead of viewing them as embodiments of hatred, Ukrainian forces consider the Russian prisoners as potential exchange candidates for Ukrainian POWs.

Russian imperial aggression must be stopped at any cost, and Ukrainians are doing just that. History teaches us that victories in war are not achieved solely by eliminating enemy forces. They are won by striking deep into enemy territory to disrupt supply lines and prevent the enemy from moving reinforcements. For a time, our American and European allies ignored these historical lessons, fearing to provoke Putin. However, the course of the Russo-Ukrainian war has shown that this was a mistake; battles can be won when you confront the enemy on equal terms.

The Kursk campaign is essentially dedicated to correcting this mistake. An unexpected raid deep into enemy territory and the disruption of military logistics forces the Russians to surrender and demoralizes their troops. Additionally, the territories controlled by Ukrainians provide a strong negotiating position to compel the Muscovites to relinquish the occupied areas.

“Ukraine has made it clear to the world that its goal is to preserve its restored independence and territorial integrity. Moscow often tries to portray Ukraine as almost the instigator of this bloody war, despite the fact that it is evident that Putin's Russia is the aggressor. The fact that Ukraine continues to fight after two and a half years of grueling battles demonstrates the resolve of the Ukrainian people and their determination to win.”

Currently, several conclusions can be drawn from the Kursk campaign. At present, 25 percent of the Russian economy is somehow dependent on the Kursk region, which Ukraine has a chance to bring under its control.

“When Ukraine can fully control the transit of gas exports and energy plants in the Kursk region, it will not only signify a potential end to Putin's war but also a possible end to the Russian economy as a whole. In this scenario, the region becomes a trump card in negotiations with Moscow. Strategically, Kursk is worth more to the Kremlin than both Donbas and Crimea combined.”

Bringing the war on Russian territory is also necessary because when your enemy has entrenched themselves in a First World War-style defense, creating massive minefields, simply bypassing them is not ideal. Russian forces are too large to cut off entirely from their supply lines. However, a strike that also blocks railway lines and supply depots can be very effective.

Putin's recruits, sent to plug the gaps in the Ukrainian raid, have proven to be poorly armed and inadequately trained, unable to execute swift maneuvers or make effective tactical decisions. If the well-equipped Ukrainian Kursk expeditionary force (let's call it that for now) can maintain its advance along the front line, the Russian conscripts become ineffective in combat unless they are entrenched in a network of defensive positions and fortifications.

The flanking strike on Kursk also threatens the Belgorod rear. Rail lines cut by Ukraine could not only disrupt Russia’s logistical capacity toward Kharkiv but also jeopardize the replenishment of fresh reserves, weapons, tanks, and artillery across the entire front in Donbas. There could be a domino effect if Ukrainians manage to capture Kursk or establish strong defensive positions on its outskirts.

“Moreover, the failure in Kursk would not only be a complete humiliation for Putin and the commander of the Russian occupation forces, General Valery Gerasimov, but its negative repercussions would also impact the morale and combat effectiveness of the Russian terrorist army, which was already in poor condition.”

Putin must be enraged. Two and a half years ago, his vaunted army launched a full-scale invasion against a much smaller neighbor. Yet, Ukraine has not only held its ground and regained part of its territory but has now entered enemy territory - into Russia itself.

The pathetic leader of a failing country cannot seem to understand that the only acceptable option for him and his criminal regime is to withdraw troops from all Ukrainian lands. However, he will not do so voluntarily, as he is incapable of anticipating the situation even a few steps ahead.

But we can list the messages that the Kursk breakthrough sends to Moscow and the collective West:

• It makes it clear to Russians who would otherwise continue to be in Putin's information bubble that the war could have major negative consequences for them as well;
• it can draw Russian troops away from other parts of the front line to prevent their advance;
• raises morale in Ukraine by demonstrating this, so far, local victory;
• demonstrates to the defeatists in the West that Ukraine is worth supporting because we still have a lot of fighting ahead of us;
• It will create a split in the Russian military elite because someone will be held accountable and there will be a lot of blame shifting to those with lower general ranks;
• demonstrates what Ukraine could do if it were properly equipped with modern Western weapons;
• destroys Russia's key military resources.

The Kremlin still has not grasped that, due to their sacrifice and bravery, Ukrainians have thwarted Putin's goal of destroying the Ukrainian state.

The Kursk campaign has the potential to alter the entire trajectory of the Russo-Ukrainian war. It goes far beyond previously developed military theories. Therefore, it is quite possible that Ukrainians are today writing a new chapter in the very manual of warfare.

Source

About the author. Viktor Kaspruk, journalist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.