Russia planned to establish political control over Moldova by 2030 - investigation

This is stated in a joint investigation by journalists RISE (Moldova), Delfi (Estonia), Kyiv Independent (Ukraine), Belarusian Investigative Center (Belarus), Yahoo News (USA), Süddeutsche Zeitung (Germany), Westdeutscher Rundfunk (Germany), Expressen (Sweden), Frontstory (Poland) and VSquare and other experts in the field.

Journalists received the document "Strategic goals of the Russian Federation in the Republic of Moldova", according to which Russia planned to take Moldova under political control by 2030.

The strategy was built on three spheres of influence: military-political, economic and humanitarian.

The goal is not to sneakily annex the country, but rather to strengthen pro-Russian influence in Moldova, primarily to counter pro-NATO, pro-European tendencies. The Kremlin sees Moldova as a buffer that is oriented toward Russia rather than as a part of the Russian Empire. As with Georgia, the goal is to put a "stop" sign for the West and prevent the country's accession to the EU and NATO through all possible means, according to an intelligence source in Moldova.

The objectives of the strategy are claimed to be: 

• countering the influence of NATO and the EU in Moldova;

• involving Moldova in the CSTO and other international projects under the auspices of the Russian Federation;

• mediating the "settlement of the Transnistrian conflict" based on the special status of Transnistria;

• strengthening pro-Russian sentiments through informational influence and educational programs, while opposing "Romanization".

The subject is economic pressure on Moldova as one of the main ways of influence on the country. 

Moldova's high dependence on Russian gas has made it vulnerable to repeated and long-term trade embargoes by the Russian Federation. According to Vlad Lupan, a former representative of Moldova at the UN, the economic plan continues to focus on the supply of Russian gas, which would maintain Moldova's unilateral dependence on Russia and further burden its population with inflated gas prices and threats of disconnection, especially in winter. Lupan added that Russia has a history of using gas as a political weapon to achieve its political goals.

Another important task for the Kremlin was also to prevent the restriction of Russian mass media activities in the country and to create a network of public organizations loyal to Russia, such as the Moldovan-Russian Business Union, founded by ex-president Igor Dodon.

It is noted that the document was prepared by the same administration that developed a similar strategy regarding Russia's plans to seize Belarus.

• Dossier analytical center previously reported that the Kremlin plans to seize Belarus by 2030. The war in Ukraine slightly slowed down the process of the absorption of Belarus by Russia, but did not stop it.