Putin goes to Belarus to say goodbye to Lukashenko if he does not enter war

He shared his opinions with Espreso TV.

"I think that Putin is going to Belarus to say goodbye to Lukashenko. Either Russia absorbs Belarus and Lukashenko ceases to be the autocrat of Belarus, or Lukashenko will carry out all Putin's orders to invade the territory of Ukraine. If Lukashenko will not be able to fulfill the duties of the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, then the full power and governance of the state will be transferred to the Security Council of Belarusian Republic, which is headed by Alexander Wolfovich, Putin's protege. And he may be the one to give the order to invade Ukraine," Lapin explained.

According to the AFU officer, Lukashenko does not want to send Belarusian security forces to war in Ukraine.

"The purpose of Putin's visit to Belarus is to talk with Lukashenko once again about the absorption of Belarus and further actions in the context of the war against Ukraine. They need to gather at least 40,000 soldiers ready to die in Ukraine to create a real threat to us. 

Belarus today has about 18 tactical groups ready, which is about 20,000 military. Lukashenko will not send the Belarusian security forces to Ukraine, because his power rests on the bayonets of the security forces, and he will not give up the latter. But Lukashenko has the means to divert the attention of the Armed Forces," Lapin added.

• On December 15, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi said that he did not rule out the possibility of Russia launching an offensive on Kyiv from Belarus. Russia may repeat the attack on Kyiv in January or February, 2023. Currently, the aggressor country is preparing about 200,000 new military.
• On December 16, it was announced that Vladimir Putin will meet with Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk on December 19. And ISW analysts determined what Putin will try to persuade Lukashenko to do during the visit.
• On December 18, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a regular meeting of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief's Staff. They discussed, in particular, the situation in Belarus and the possible threat of an offensive.
• The meeting of Russian leader Vladimir Putin and self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko on December 19 will be part of efforts to create information conditions for a new stage of the war against Ukraine.