“Lower the Rhetoric” on China, Says Milley

General Mark Milley shared his opinions in an interview with Kevin Baron.

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff warned against "overheated" rhetoric about an impending US war with China and said he doubted China's chances of "conquering" Taiwan. But, he added, the US should continue to accelerate arms shipments to the independent state and build up its own military capabilities, just in case.

After this year's scare of Chinese balloons, the real China hype continues in the United States. Over the past two weeks, members of Congress have been bombarding Milley and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin with a list of concerns about China during hearings, from nuclear weapons to computer chips, invasion of Taiwan, and alliance with Russia. Milley began telling lawmakers that war with China and Russia "is not inevitable or unavoidable." According to him, this is part of an effort to reduce tensions.

"I think there's a lot of rhetoric in China, and a lot of rhetoric elsewhere, to include the United States, that could create the perception that war is right around the corner or we’re on the brink of war with China," Milley told Defense One.

"And that could happen. I mean, it is possible that you could have an incident or some other trigger event that could lead to uncontrolled escalation. So, it's not impossible. But I don't think at this point I would put it in the likely category," said Milley. "And I think that the rhetoric itself can overheat the environment."

Nevertheless, Milley said he agrees with calls for the US to send weapons to Taiwan as soon as possible to get ahead of Xi Jinping in any event.

Xi Jinping has said that he wants the People's Liberation Army to be armed and ready to take Taiwan by force, if necessary, by 2027. "So if you think about it, that's only four years away," Milley said. "So, one of the elements of deterrence is to make sure that your opponent knows that the cost exceeds the benefit. So, for Taiwan, we've—my guess is we've got three or four years to get Taiwan in a position where they will create the perception in the minds of the Chinese decision makers that the cost exceeds that.”

Milley said Taiwan needs air defense, anti-ship cruise missiles and anti-ship mines. But, he said, the island itself, its 23 million people, including 170,000 active military and 1-2 million reservists, and China's lack of experience make a takeover unlikely. "It favors the defense. It would be a very difficult island to capture," he said.

"For the Chinese to conduct an amphibious and airborne operation to seize that island—to actually seize it?—That's a really difficult operation. But Xi put the challenge out there, and we'll see where it goes."

Fears of an alliance between China and Russia are also premature, Milley said. "We want to have a geostrategic approach that does not drive Russia and China into each other's arms to form an actual military alliance," he said. "There's some indications that this conversation is ongoing. But that's a whole lot different than actual alliances and military lines."

Meanwhile, Milley said, "I think it's incumbent upon us, the United States, to make sure that we have an incredibly powerful military that is capable," that China knows that, and that China trusts that the United States will use it if necessary.

Instead of the way the Chinese threat is discussed today, he said, "I’d prefer to go back to what Teddy Roosevelt said, which is, you know, ‘speak softly, carry a big stick’ sort of thing. So: Have our military really, really strong [and] lower the rhetoric a little bit with the temperature."

Milley likes to quote history, and with regard to China, he argues that Marxism and determinism point to a bleak future. "My understanding and my analysis of China is that at least their military, and perhaps others, have come to some sort of conclusion that war with the United States is inevitable. I think that's a very dangerous thing."

"I don't believe war is inevitable. I don't think it's imminent. But I do think that we need to be very, very pragmatic and cautious going forward.

And we will reduce the likelihood of war if we remain really, really strong, relative to China, and China knows that we have the will to use it, if necessary."

"I just think that it needs to be a little bit more realistic and a little bit less, perhaps, emotional, I suppose. But also on the China side…I just think, for us, the United States, approach this with some steely-eyed, cold-eyed realism. Get the military up to the level of dominance relevant to China, in all the domains. And if they know that, and they know we have a will to use it, then you're probably gonna deter them more from the start."