For China, Russia is a proxy unit deployed into reconnaissance by battle

First, the international reaction forced Beijing to disavow the absurd and confusing, but no less harmful, words of its diplomat in Paris.

Secondly, the Chinese ambassador's frankness revealed to a wide audience the real tendencies of the establishment to which he belongs. Our diplomacy should have drawn the attention of our colleagues from the Global South to the fact that this is not a neutral position and moral high ground, but a clear political bias and partisanship.

Harvard once conducted research on the root causes of wars. Often it is the culmination of a confrontation between an old and a new power. Let's say the "old power" notices what it sees as a potential danger from the "new power" growing nearby. Not being able to stop it, the "old power" strikes preemptively. Or vice versa – the "new power" challenges the old balance of power.

Russia's war against Ukraine is the agony of Russian imperialism. We can say with certainty that Moscow's aggression is the reaction of the "old power" to the potential and predictable, albeit time-consuming, growth of Ukraine's geopolitical potential and capabilities. Moscow has not found any other form of reaction, because it is not capable of doing so intellectually, culturally, or politically.

“Russia's war against Ukraine is the agony of Russian imperialism. We can say with certainty that Moscow's aggression is a reaction of the "old power" to the potential and predictable, though time-consuming, growth of Ukraine's geopolitical potential and capabilities. Moscow has not found any other form of reaction, because it is not capable of doing so intellectually, culturally, or politically”

But another interpretation is equally important. If China is preparing to change the balance of power in a world that it did not create but is maintained so far, then it is China that is acting as the "new power" and challenging the United States. In this sense, Russia is a kind of proxy unit for China, thrown into the battlefield for reconnaissance. Putin's failures provide Beijing with a lot of material for conclusions, in particular regarding the best ways to change the world order in its favor. Many of these conclusions can sober up overconfident plans.

Both versions have a leg to stand on. And both versions do not negate each other.

In any case, Ukraine should not play a game where we do not notice Beijing's bias. All non-Western partners should be told about this in a calm manner. Especially since the Chinese ambassador to France made the mistake of sharing his true colors with the world. Ukraine's experience teaches us that we must repel any direct or indirect aggression both on the battlefield and in the field of diplomacy.

Source

About the author. Danylo Lubkivskyi, Ukrainian diplomat, international policy expert.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.