Ukraine, US prepare completely different counteroffensive: plans have changed dramatically - The New York Times

This was reported by The New York Times with reference to anonymous sources among the US military.

The work began soon after President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine told his generals he wanted to make a dramatic move to demonstrate that his country could push back on the Russian invasion. Under his orders, the Ukrainian military devised a plan to launch a broad assault across the south to reclaim Kherson and cut off Mariupol from the Russian force in the east, The New York Times writes. 

The Ukrainian generals and American officials believed that such a large-scale attack would incur immense casualties and fail to quickly retake large amounts of territory.

One critical moment this summer came during a war game with U.S. and Ukrainian officials aimed at testing the success of a broad offensive across the south. The exercise suggested such an offensive would fail.

Then, according to American sources, experts offered Zelenskyy another option. 

“We saw the fact that the Russians actually relocated a lot of their best forces down to the south in preparation for the other counteroffensive that the Ukrainians kicked off,” Mr. Kahl said. “So we had reason to believe that because of the persistent morale challenges, and the pressure of the Ukrainians, that there might be pockets of the Russian military that are a little more brittle than they appear on paper.”

Instead of one large offensive, the Ukrainian military proposed two. One, in Kherson, would most likely take days or weeks before any dramatic results because of the concentration of Russian troops. The other was planned for near Kharkiv.

Together Britain, the United States and Ukraine conducted an assessment of the new plan, trying to war game it once more. This time officials from the three countries agreed it would work — and give Mr. Zelenskyy what he wanted: a big, clear victory, The New York Times writes. 

By failing to detect a significant grouping around Kharkiv, the Russian military demonstrated incompetence and a lack of reliable intelligence. Their command and control has been destroyed, and they now have trouble supplying troops, opening up new opportunities for Ukraine to develop an offensive in the coming weeks, US officials said.

However, US and Ukrainian officials say the south is the most important theater of the war.

“Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are likely potential objectives,” said Michael Kofman, the director of Russia studies at CNA, a defense research institute. “We might see further Ukrainian Army operations to achieve breakthroughs there in the future.”