Ukraine urgently needs to boost its air warfare capabilities – Kyiv Security Forum

This is stated in the military strategic review Air Threats to Ukraine prepared by the Kyiv Security Forum.

Analysts note that the enemy is using at least 600 aircraft from 39 airfields against Ukraine and has a large reserve of trained pilots.

At the same time, Russian frontline aviation is massively using new tactics of dropping so-called guided bombs. In addition, the Russian Federation continues the massive use of Iranian Shahed 'kamikaze' drones and seeks to establish their production on its territory.

Russia has probably managed to quadruple the production of long-range missiles compared to 2021.

The authors of the study emphasize that Russia's significant quantitative and qualitative superiority over the air capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces could lead to Russia gaining control over Ukrainian skies and to much greater losses from enemy air strikes than those that Ukraine has already suffered. According to analysts, first of all, Ukraine may not be able to provide air support for its own troops.

In this regard, the Kyiv Security Forum believes that the absolute priority should be to obtain Western air and long-range weapons and air defense equipment as soon as possible, in much larger quantities and at a much faster pace than is currently available.

"A decisive step towards acquiring such capabilities would be to supply Ukraine with F-16 fighters (or other fighters that are in massive service with NATO countries) and the entire range of aviation weapons for such aircraft," observers emphasize.

Analysts note that it is also necessary to provide sufficient financial, technological, and other support for the accelerated development of Ukrainian production and repair of air weapons (drones, missiles, airplanes, helicopters) and air defense equipment.

The authors of the study warn that in the worst-case scenario, Ukraine could lose its full-fledged air defense as a result of the depletion of long- and medium-range anti-aircraft missiles or the destruction of air defense assets.

However, if the necessary measures are taken, Ukraine will be able to achieve sustainable development of its own air capabilities and effectively counter Russia in the sky.

Earlier, UN Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo said that in May, Russia fired missiles and drones almost three times more often throughout Ukraine.

F-16 fighter jets for Ukraine

On May 21, U.S. President Joe Biden approved the training of Ukrainians on F-16s. Volodymyr Zelenskyy assured that Ukraine would not use these aircraft to strike at Russian territory.

Defense Ministry adviser Yuriy Sak said that Ukraine hopes to receive the first modern American F-16 fighters in the fall of 2023.

On May 25, at a meeting in the Ramstein format, it was announced that the coalition to train the Ukrainian Armed Forces with F-16s would be led by Denmark and the Netherlands and would include four other countries: Norway, Belgium, Portugal, and Poland. 

On June 14, one of the leaders of the "aviation coalition," the Netherlands, announced that training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16s would begin in the coming months.

On June 15, following the Ramstein meeting, Stoltenberg said that training on the F-16 had already begun. Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin noted the rapid progress in this area, and a spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force said that they wanted a quick result, but that "the process is delayed."

The same day, it was reported that Denmark and the Netherlands plan to start training Ukrainian pilots this summer and will establish a training center in an Eastern European NATO country.

Following the Ramstein meetin, Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov expressed confidence that we would have a "bird coalition."

According to a Politico source, a coalition of Western countries is considering Romania as a place to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s.

On June 22, Denmark requested assistance from the United States to train Ukrainian pilots in the use of F-16 fighters.

On June 26, Acting Defense Minister of Denmark, Troels Lund Poulsen, announced the commencement of training for pilots from Ukraine on Western F-16 fighter jets.

On July 1, President Zelenskyy mentioned that the schedule for training Ukrainian pilots on Western F-16 fighter jets has not been finalized yet, and some foreign partners are causing delays.

On July 6, media reported that Romania would become a base for training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s.

On July 7, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala announced at a joint press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Prague that the country will supply helicopters and train pilots to fly F-16s.

On July 11, Ukraine agreed to train Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 combat aircraft with France. On the same day, Ukraine signed a memorandum with 11 partner countries to create a coalition to train pilots on F-16 fighter jets.

On the same day, Ukraine signed a memorandum with 11 partner countries to create a coalition to train F-16 fighter pilots.

Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba says that the first F-16 fighter jets are likely to fly in Ukraine's skies by the end of March 2024.

Also on July 15, European countries which had promised to start training Ukrainian pilots on F-16s said they were still waiting for the United States to officially approve the program.