Consequences of U.S. military aid suspension for Ukraine. Serhiy Zgurets’ column

Strikes on Russian oil refineries

The top topic for discussion right now is the consequences of the suspension of U.S. arms aid to Ukraine. However, I will begin this section with examples of how Ukrainian military and defense industry are taking actions that do not depend on foreign models and supplies.

On March 4, Ukrainian long-range drones carried out another series of strikes on legitimate targets within Russian territory. Among these targets was the Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery in the Rostov region. Additionally, Ukrainian drones reached the oil refinery in the city of Syzran in Russia's Samara region. It is worth noting that the distance to Syzran is about 800 km deep into Russian territory.

Before that, on the night of March 3, Ukrainian drones attacked the Ufaorgsintez plant, located over 1,350 km from Ukraine’s border. By the way, this plant in Ufa not only processed oil but also produced raw materials for three Russian enterprises that manufacture explosives, making it a legitimate target.

But when we talk about a range of 1,350 km, let me remind you that no partner country had planned to share with Ukraine models of strike weapons with such a range, so they were developed in Ukraine. The same applies to marine strike drones, which cleared the Black Sea of Russian ships for Ukraine's transport operations. This also applies to the scaling of FPV drone production, which is currently destroying about 70% of targets on the battlefield.

All these needs are covered by Ukraine's defense industry, but this only accounts for 40% of total needs and capabilities. The remaining 30% comes from American and European supplies, along with American and European weaponry.

Suspension of U.S. military aid

Regarding American weapons, since March 4, the U.S. president ordered the suspension of all military aid to Ukraine. This includes shipments of weapons that were already prepared for delivery to Ukraine from Poland and only needed to cross the border. Polish officials confirmed this suspension.

Now, the question arises: how will the situation on the battlefield change after the announcement of the cessation of these weapon supplies? Ukraine’s dependence on the U.S. in the field of air defense systems and missiles for these systems is critical. Specifically, these include interceptors for Patriot systems, missiles for NASAMS, Hawk, AIM-7 missiles for the FrankenSAM project, where American missiles were adapted to our Buk air defense systems, as well as missiles for F-16 aircraft, including anti-radar ones.

The depletion of missile stocks for air defense systems will primarily affect the effectiveness of Ukraine's air defense. However, we cannot determine the exact timeline, as we do not know the volume of Ukraine's missile reserves or the intensity of air defense system usage in the near future, as this will depend on Russian attacks.

In addition to missiles, another negative aspect is that the U.S. was supposed to supply Ukraine with two Patriot systems and eight NASAMS systems, totaling ten fully operational air defense systems. This supply is currently delayed. However, the limitations on air defense may affect the front line.

As for the situation on the front, there is a need for HIMARS shells, various types of artillery shells, both standard and cluster munitions. It is also crucial to maintain the functionality of the Starlink system and ensure spare parts for already delivered American weaponry, including artillery and armored vehicles.

A separate important issue is intelligence information at both the strategic and operational levels. We also need information on the redeployment of Russian ballistic missile systems, which we receive from the U.S., relying on their satellite systems. However, according to CNN reports, there are currently no restrictions on the supply of intelligence information from the U.S., or at least not yet.

Yesterday, following a meeting of the parliamentary committee on security and intelligence to review the consequences of halting American supplies, one of the MPs stated that Ukraine has a buffer of six months. In my opinion, this is a general and rather optimistic conclusion, as there are different solutions and scenarios for each type of weaponry.

There are alternative solutions from partners and Ukraine's own developments, but for some projects, there are no substitutes. The country will need to look for asymmetrical approaches and solutions, as happened with the strike FPV drones, the number of which has significantly increased in the hands of the Ukrainian military. They compensated for the lack of mortar shells and artillery rounds at a certain stage. This means that, moving forward, the speed of Ukraine's adaptation will be crucial: both in terms of command structures within the military and in deciding which weapons to use in various formats, considering the current limitations, as well as the speed at which our defense industry adapts to the new realities.

Anton Mikhnenko, a military expert and editor of the Ukrainian Defense Review magazine at Defense Express, shared his thoughts on the suspension of U.S. military aid, noting that, after some time, this will have certain consequences for Ukraine on the battlefield. Accordingly, the country needs to ramp up domestic production, as it has many opportunities to create its own weapons and military equipment. There are over 500 private companies in Ukraine involved in the security and defense sector, manufacturing various products or components. According to Ukraine's Ministry of Strategic Industries, the total volume of military equipment that Ukraine’s defense industry can produce amounts to approximately $30 billion. It should be noted that the state has about $9-10 billion, but this is insufficient to fully utilize the potential of the Ukrainian defense industry. There is now an opportunity to increase domestic production, and the government needs to seek financial resources to manufacture products in Ukraine, thereby procuring from domestic producers. It is also important that opportunities are created for Ukrainian manufacturers to export their products abroad. Undoubtedly, a challenge for the country is that some weapon systems are not manufactured in Ukraine, so it needs to establish contacts with its partners who have these systems to either purchase them or receive them through material and technical assistance.

The military expert added that at international arms exhibitions, foreign manufacturers are taking notice of Ukrainian products. Currently, Ukraine is ahead of foreign producers in terms of weapons and military equipment development. If it enters the market for exporting its military equipment late, Ukraine will find itself in a highly competitive environment, as there will be many similar systems available. Ukraine's only advantage will be the use of Ukrainian models in combat operations. It is important to emphasize that it will face significant competition if it delays the weapons export. Exporting Ukraine's weaponry will provide it with financial resources to develop and scale up the Ukrainian defense industry.

Mikhnenko summarized that the main task for the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the top military-political leadership today is to preserve Ukraine’s human resources and potential. In these conditions, the priority is to use various unmanned ground, aviation, and maritime platforms against Russia. This area must be developed, as it will dictate technological solutions in the future. The second point is the development of electronic warfare (EW) capabilities to prevent the Russians from using unmanned lethal aviation and, in general, their aviation. The next point is the formation of a unified battlefield picture, meaning a unified system for applying forces and resources: the more efficiently the command and coordination system is built, the more effectively any technical means can be used, and now we are talking about unmanned, robotic platforms and EW systems. Other types of military equipment must change and adapt to new realities.