Ukraine could lose up to third of its weapons if U.S. aid stops – Defence Express

Oleh Katkov, editor-in-chief of the military analysis portal Defence Express, stated this in a comment to Suspilne.

According to him, about 40% of Ukraine’s current arsenal consists of domestically made weapons or those stored before the full-scale invasion.

A little over 10% are directly supplied by the U.S., either from Washington itself or through European allies with U.S. approval. Another nearly 30% comes from European countries, which also largely depend on American permission for re-export.

“If we consider the most pessimistic of all possible worst-case scenarios — truly the worst of the worst — then yes, Ukraine would lose 30% of its weapons,” he said. “But if we take a more realistic view, Ukraine should still receive what was already promised under Biden. That would ensure we don’t feel critically dependent on the U.S. for some time.”

Katkov added that Ukraine’s reliance on American weapons is even higher in critical areas like air defense and aviation. This includes ammunition for F-16s, high-precision JDAM bombs, HARM anti-radar missiles, and guided helicopter missiles.

• Meanwhile, U.S. media reported that Donald Trump has ordered a freeze on all current military aid to Ukraine until its leadership “demonstrates a sincere commitment to peace.”