ISW estimates Russian army will not have enough forces to capture Kharkiv

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported the information.

According to him, there's been an increase in the number of Russian troops regrouping in the Kharkiv direction, possibly from the Belgorod region.

In response, Ukrainian troops strengthened their defensive positions in the "most threatening" areas with additional artillery and tank units. 

However, according to ISW analysts, Syrskyi's statement does not indicate the inevitability of a possible Russian offensive against Kharkiv, which Ukrainian officials have recently warned about. 

According to Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets, Russian troops are regrouping elements of the 11th Army Corps (AC) and the 6th Combined Arms Army (CAA) from the Kupyansk direction to the newly formed Northern Group of Russian troops.

Previously, the 6th CAA units' area of responsibility was limited to offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk, particularly near Synkivka. 

Syrskyi noted that Ukrainian forces had recently improved their positions near Synkivka, and a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces had retreated from Synkivka due to a lack of manpower in the area, suggesting that Russian forces had likely withdrawn at least some of the 6th CAA units from the area. 

According to ISW, a potential future Russian offensive to capture Kharkiv would be an extremely ambitious undertaking that would pose significant challenges to Russian forces, especially given that Russian troops would face better-equipped Ukrainian forces after the arrival of US military assistance. 

• On the afternoon of Sunday, April 28, 2024, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said that Russian troops were increasing in number and regrouping in the Kharkiv direction.