Kremlin is pressuring Lukashenko's regime to join war in Ukraine to strengthen control over Belarus
The Kremlin's efforts to pressure Belarusian officials to support Russia's offensive campaign in Ukraine are part of a long-term effort to tighten control over Belarus.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.
Thus, Russian officials are constantly conducting information operations that predict that Belarusian ground forces may join the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Belarusian leaders, including Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, sometimes play along with these information operations.
The goal is to pin down Ukrainian forces near the border with Belarus so that they cannot intensify operations elsewhere, experts believe.
At the same time, it is unlikely that Belarus will invade Ukraine in the near future.
The report says that Belarusian intervention in Ukraine will not be able to do more than temporarily distract Ukrainian ground forces from other parts of the theater of operations, given the extremely limited effective combat power at Minsk's disposal.
Russia was particularly keen to establish a permanent military base in Belarus and exercise direct control over the Belarusian Armed Forces.
The Kremlin has regularly sought to use its influence over Belarusian security and military affairs to pressure Belarus into supporting its invasion of Ukraine.
Experts say that the Kremlin's efforts to put pressure on Belarus to support Russia's offensive campaign in Ukraine are part of a long-term effort to strengthen further control over Belarus.
The Minsk regime's support for the Russian invasion made Belarus an ally in the war against Ukraine. However, Belarus's support for Russia's war in Ukraine probably reduces the material capacity of the Belarusian armed forces to conduct their own conventional military operations.
Belarus is also probably reducing its stocks of artillery ammunition due to the transfer of ammunition to the Russian military. The Institute emphasizes that the country's officials try to hide the amount of military equipment they send to Russia.
Analysts added that the Belarusian Armed Forces are likely to face limitations in their ability to train current and new personnel due to their supporting role in Russia's force-building efforts.
The Belarusian Armed Forces have only six maneuver divisions and consist of approximately 45,000 personnel, divided into two command headquarters.
According to ISW, the degradation of the Russian Armed Forces due to devastating losses in Ukraine will also prevent the deployment of Belarusian mechanized forces for combat operations together with Russian troops. In theory, Belarusian forces should be able to operate in joint units with Russian mechanized forces.
Also, Lukashenko's support for Russia's war in Ukraine and Russia's pressure on Belarus to join hostilities are likely to cause friction in the Belarusian Armed Forces. Belarusian personnel are certainly aware of the heavy losses inflicted on Russian forces in Ukraine and probably do not wish to suffer the same outcome.
Thus, elements in the Belarusian Armed Forces resisted the idea of joining the war on the territory of Ukraine.
Lukashenko's establishment of information conditions probably further restrains Belarus's readiness to enter war.
According to the report, Lukashenko is continuing to create information conditions in order to resist Russian pressure to enter the Ukraine war, claiming that NATO is preparing to attack Belarus.
Analysts note that Belarus is unlikely to invade Ukraine due to internal dynamics within the country. ISW previously assessed that Lukashenko has no intention of entering war with Ukraine due to the possibility of renewed internal unrest.
ISW experts say Belarus' entry into the war will, in the worst case, force Ukraine to temporarily divert forces and equipment from the current front lines. Belarus will continue to help Russia wage war in Ukraine, even though Lukashenko is unlikely to send his army to participate in hostilities.
However, experts add, Russian officials will continue to conduct information operations aimed at suggesting that Belarusian forces may invade Ukraine in order to push Ukrainian forces to the Belarusian border. It is unlikely that these information operations predict real Belarusian intervention in the near future.
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