ISW says what goal Kremlin pursues by deploying troops again in Belarus

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

"The recent deployment of Russian troops in Belarus in November 2022 is likely part of Russia's efforts to strengthen Russian training capabilities and conduct an information operation aimed at Ukraine and the West — not to prepare to attack Ukraine from the north again," the report said.

Experts noted that satellite images from mid-November indicate an increase in Russian equipment, in particular, main battle tanks at the 230th combined military training ground Obuz-Lesnovsky in Brest. The number is observed for approximately one brigade.

And the monitoring organization "Belarusian Gayun" reported that the Kremlin transferred 15 Tor-M2 anti-aircraft missile systems and 10 units of unspecified engineering equipment to Brest.

"These deployments likely support Russian training efforts and are not preparing for combat from Belarus," the report says.

The Institute recalls that on November 28, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that, according to its estimates, Russian forces will transfer unspecified elements ("some units") from Belarus to an unspecified area after the units "acquire combat capability."

"This statement supports several ISW assessments that combat losses among Russian trainers and the stresses of mobilization have reduced Russia’s training capacity, likely increasing Russia’s reliance on Belarusian training capacity," the analysts said.

The Kremlin is also likely seeking to use the deployment of Russian troops in Belarus as an information operation to pin down Ukrainian forces around Kyiv and prevent them from being used in the South and East, according to ISW.

"Belarusian forces remain unlikely to attack Ukraine as ISW has assessed," the experts add.