ISW assesses risks for Ukraine due to joint deployment of Russian, Belarusian troops

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

"Russian and Belarusian troops are unlikely to attack Ukraine from the north, despite the statement of the President of Belarus Oleksandr Lukashenko on October 10 that Belarus and Russia agreed to deploy the Regional Grouping of the Forces of the Union State - a strategic formation of Russian and Belarusian units whose task is the defense of the Union State".  - the message says.

According to experts, it is likely that the Russian component of any formation of a regional grouping of troops will consist of mobilized or conscripts who have a low level of training and will not pose a significant threat to Ukraine.

Also, the component may consist of units of the 1st Guards Tank Army, the 20th Combined Arms Army and airborne units that have suffered significant losses in Ukraine and have significantly reduced combat capability.

It is noted that before this, the mass media reported that the Russian Federation was massively transferring its soldiers to Belarus in cattle cars.  ISW has previously assessed that the Kremlin hopes to use Belarusian military facilities and infrastructure to train mobilized soldiers, but this is not an indicator of an imminent open invasion from the territory of Belarus.

At the same time, Russia may try to use its forces in Belarus to "fix" Ukrainian troops near Kyiv and prevent them from redeploying to another place or participating in a counteroffensive, the Institute emphasizes.

ISW believes that currently Lukashenko cannot afford the domestic consequences of direct Belarusian intervention in the war, and Russia meanwhile does not have the opportunity to quickly form a ground strike force from scratch or from units operating in Belarus.