ISW analysts assess risk of offensive from Belarus as low

This was reported by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to ISW analysts, Such a course of action remains unlikely in the coming months given that Russian forces lack the capability even to interdict Ukrainian supply lines from the west with a ground offensive. 

The nearest Ukrainian east-west rail line is 30 km from the Belarusian border, and the Pripet Marshes in northern Ukraine and Belarus make maneuver warfare across the international border in Volyn and Rivne oblasts exceptionally difficult. Ukraine’s road and rail network has sufficient nodes with Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary that a Russian incursion from Belarus could not seriously degrade Ukrainian logistical lines without projecting deeper into Ukraine than Russians did during the Battle of Kyiv, when Russian forces were at their strongest. Those forces are now significantly degraded.

• The Ukrainian Armed Forces' General Staff believes that the probability of an attempted offensive from the territory of Belarus is increasing due to the aggressive statements and actions of the leadership of Russia and Belarus.

• Belarusian troops on the border with Ukraine may try to divert the attention of Ukraine's Armed Forces to themselves.