How to strengthen Ukraine's air defense amid Russia’s combined strikes?

This is reported by Defense Express Media & Consulting Company. 

A cursory analysis of the massive combined air attacks launched by the Russian forces against Ukrainian cities in recent days suggests that the air defense system needs to be strengthened not only with systems capable of hitting ballistic targets, but also with short-range systems. For this purpose, anti-aircraft artillery systems, such as the German Gepard and Skynex and, of course, the Turkish Korkut, will be useful, says Valerii Riabykh, Defense Express’ Director for Development.

Russia has changed the tactics of terrorist airstrikes and shifted their direction. Following the aggressor's perverse approaches after Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the main targets are now port and logistics infrastructure facilities in southern Ukraine. Taken together, this allowed the enemy to break through Ukraine's air defense to some extent.

Russia’s terrorist threat from the air is increasing

According to the Ukrainian Air Force Command, on the night of July 19, Russia launched 63 air targets, of which 37 were shot down, or 58.7% of all missiles and drones launched. The next night, on July 20, Russian terrorists attacked Ukraine using 38 missiles and 'kamikaze' drones, of which 18 targets (47.3%) were destroyed by air defense. This is despite the fact that previously the percentage of enemy air targets hit was even sometimes above the 90 percent mark.

The decline in the percentage of targets hit has shown that further improvements in air defense need to be made relentlessly. While countering complex air targets, such as Kh-22 missiles or various types of ballistic missiles, is more or less clear (Ukraine's air defense system needs to be further saturated with Western-style systems such as Patriot and SAMP/T, which are capable of fighting them), increasing the percentage of destruction of other enemy air weapons (cruise missiles of various classes, air-to-ground missiles, 'kamikaze' drones) requires further saturation of air defense with short-range systems. And, first and foremost, we need to work on the direct defense of important facilities. Due to the perverse approaches of the Russian leadership, the list of such objects is significantly expanding to include facilities that ensure the functioning of the Ukrainian economy and even residential buildings and cultural heritage sites. And as the heating season approaches, there will be a need to protect energy infrastructure facilities again. To accomplish these tasks, short-range air defense systems can be most effective.

Not just Patriot and SAMP/T

Short-range air defense systems are the last line of defense against enemy air attacks. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have critically few such systems, and they are represented by Soviet and Western missile systems (mostly outdated), a small number of German Gepard anti-aircraft systems and their outdated Soviet counterparts, as well as anti-aircraft machine guns. In addition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces massively use Soviet and Western MANPADS (man-portable air defense systems). It should be noted that these systems are also critical for providing direct cover for troops operating on the battlefield. That is why every time a difficult choice has to be made - what needs to be covered in the first place.

In view of this, it is now a critical need for the Armed Forces to increase the number of these systems to the point where the existing number of them would allow them to solve the task of covering both troops and critical infrastructure facilities.

Along with various short-range anti-aircraft missile systems, such as the Osa-AKM, or the Avenger, and man-portable air defense systems (Stinger, Piorun, Martlet, RBS-70, Igla-1, Arrow-2, etc.) used to cover targets, anti-aircraft artillery systems occupy a separate niche. Such systems include both Soviet Shilka and German Gepard anti-aircraft tanks received from partners. Such systems can be extremely effective both for covering troops and for direct protection of critical infrastructure on the near frontiers, where the use of short-range anti-aircraft missiles is no longer feasible and expensive. Using artillery anti-aircraft systems is much cheaper than using even man-portable air defense systems. For example, based on the cost of ammunition, the average cost of guaranteed destruction of a typical Shahed drone target can range from USD 3,000 to USD 10,000, depending on the type of ammunition and the conditions. This is a rather low figure compared to the fact that even Patriot missiles costing up to USD 1 million per unit are sometimes used in Ukraine to defeat such targets.

Such systems allow destroying enemy missiles and drones that have managed to break through remote air defense lines directly into the area where the facilities are located. For example, Conflict Intelligence Team observers suggest that during the next wave of massive shelling of critical infrastructure on October 18, 2022, it was a Gepard anti-aircraft system that destroyed an Kh-101 cruise missile over the Kyiv's CHP-6.

The effectiveness of anti-aircraft artillery in providing direct cover for troops and facilities is significantly increased when dealing with modern anti-aircraft artillery systems. Such systems, for example, can fire programmable airburst munitions, which significantly increases the effectiveness of fighting small targets and, unlike anti-aircraft missiles, these munitions are not vulnerable to electronic countermeasures.

In addition, modern anti-aircraft artillery systems can be used as part of a complex of such means, which is combined with a combat control system. This creates a single element of the air defense system that can cover a certain direction, interacting with a single command center and exchanging the entire range of data. This makes modern anti-aircraft artillery systems a formidable force in countering the entire spectrum of enemy air defense capabilities.

It is encouraging that Ukraine has already received the first such modern artillery systems in mid-spring this year. We are talking about Skynex air defense systems developed by the German concern Rheinmetall. According to the standard configuration, the Skynex system can include a command and control unit, X-TAR3D radar and four Mk3 artillery pieces. The range of the target is up to 3 km.

Such air defense systems are essential for our country to better protect our infrastructure from air attacks, so, according to media reports, negotiations are already underway on the possible joint production of individual components for Skynex systems. However, there is no publicly available information about real cases of combat use of such systems or progress in the issue of cooperation.

However, even a cursory study of the issue reveals a certain problem that needs to be taken into account. German Rheinmetall is critically dependent on contractors from Switzerland, a country with a demonstrably "neutral" position, to manufacture these systems and supply ammunition. This position has already caused even the German Bundestag to think about it: if the war comes to German soil, Switzerland may block the supply of ammunition to Berlin as well. This, in particular, applies to the 35-mm AHEAD programmable aerial explosive munitions used by this system, which are really good at destroying enemy cruise missiles and 'kamikaze' drones at close range.

Therefore, in order to diversify efforts to build up Ukraine's air defense with modern anti-aircraft artillery systems, it would be quite reasonable to pay attention to the Turkish system of a similar class, Korkut (which has long been looked at with interest by the Ukrainian military).

Korkut – the optimal Turkish low-altitude air defense system

The Turkish 35-mm self-propelled air defense system Korkut, developed in accordance with NATO standards. It is designed for air defense of mechanized troops and mobile units, as well as stationary objects such as military bases, critical infrastructure facilities - it can be effectively used to protect power plants (including nuclear power plants), ports, transport infrastructure, industrial and other facilities subject to terrorist attacks by the Russian Federation. The system provides protection of the coverage area, performing operations from detection to interception and destruction of targets.

The Korkut self-propelled air defense system consists of three 35-mm self-propelled anti-aircraft artillery systems and one self-propelled combat control center. Thanks to its own sensors and software algorithms, this system can operate completely autonomously, and if necessary, under the control of a higher-level system. It should also be noted that all elements of the system are based on the FNSS ACV-30 armored vehicle - it is floating and can cross rivers and deep water. The maximum speed on the road is 65 km/h, on water - 6 km/h.

This architecture, as well as the stabilization of the gun turret in two planes, allows Korkut to monitor the air situation, including tracking and destroying targets on the move. This is due to the stabilization of the gun turret in two planes. The integrated tracking system, which includes radar and electro-optical sensors, provides automatic target tracking.

The combat control center controls three gun systems, captures and tracks targets using a 3D search radar, and has an integrated friend-or-foe threat recognition system. The effective radar range is 70 km.

It is interesting that the control and management functions of this command post can be implemented for other air defense systems - in particular, in the Turkish air defense system, this applies, for example, to the short-range air defense missile system HISAR-A. Thus, the Korkut system's combat control center, in addition to solving the tasks of distributing targets among the self-propelled anti-aircraft artillery systems that make up its composition, provides full interoperability with troop management systems and higher-level command systems.

The self-propelled anti-aircraft artillery system of the Korkut air defense system is equipped with twin 35-mm Oerlikon KDC-02 cannons manufactured under license by the Turkish company MKEK. The twin cannon provides a rate of fire of up to 1,100 rounds per minute. The system is capable of effectively hitting a wide range of air targets at ranges up to 4 km. According to Aselsan, the system can be additionally armed with a Stinger or other similar man-portable air defense system.

The entire range of 35mm ammunition is manufactured in Turkey by MKEK. Importantly, in addition to the classic types such as HEI (high-explosive explosive projectile) and TPT (practical tracer projectile used for training purposes), the Turkish Korkut can also fire 35mm programmable airburst ATOM munitions developed by Aselsan.

This significantly increases the effectiveness of defeating and destroying air targets at a relatively low price-quality ratio. At the same time, the automatic beltless ammunition feed mechanism (ALAFM) used in Korkut provides a unique opportunity to simultaneously load two different types of ammunition into the magazine and the ability to change the type of ammunition in a short time (less than 15 seconds). This, in turn, allows the crew to quickly respond to changing tactical situations and choose the most appropriate type of ammunition in specific combat conditions.

According to the developers, these munitions significantly increase the effectiveness of the Korkut self-propelled air defense system against a number of modern threats, including cruise missiles, air-to-ground missiles and UAVs, as well as helicopters and fighter jets.

It should also be emphasized here that the ATOM airburst munitions programming systems used in Korkut and AHEAD for Skynex are significantly different, so these munitions are not interchangeable and can only be used with specific systems.

Gepard, Skynex Korkut have their own features

It is clear that in the context of intensifying Russian terrorist attacks, Ukraine has an urgent need to obtain all systems that are available. This applies equally to the proven German Gepard anti-aircraft tanks, the technologically advanced Skynex and the modern and balanced Turkish Korkut tanks, which are widely used in Ukraine. It is the tracked base of the latter, the armor protection of the crews and the integration into a single system (combat unit) that make it possible to effectively use this complex directly on the battlefield.

It should be noted that the Korkut concept is somewhat similar to the proven German Gepard system and is similar in concept to the German Skynex. However, the Turkish system is more modern than Gepard and much cheaper, both in terms of the price of a set of system elements and the cost of operation, maintenance and the necessary ammunition compared to Skynex.

If we compare Korkut and Gepard, we can immediately note that although the principle of operation of these systems is almost identical, Korkut is a modern system. The Turkish Korkut air defense system is at the very beginning of its life cycle, with the production of these systems and the necessary spare parts and components underway, and these systems are supplied directly from the manufacturer. At the same time, the system is being improved and modernization packages are being tested, and the necessary improvements are being made to the software. This is based on the manufacturer's receipt of data on the combat use of the system directly from operators.

At the same time, Gepard is a reliable and quite effective system, and there are currently several hundred of these anti-aircraft tanks in the world that could potentially replenish the arsenals of Ukrainian anti-aircraft fighters. However, Gepard represents previous generations and has not been produced for more than 40 years. The prospects for further use of this system are limited by its moral and physical obsolescence, and this should undoubtedly be taken into account when making a choice in favor of more modern systems.

It should also be noted here that the advantages of Korkut include the fact that this system is already in service with the Turkish army and has proven itself in combat use in the conflicts in Syria and Libya. Currently, the Turkish Armed Forces operate about a dozen such systems with further plans to increase their number to 14 (42 self-propelled anti-aircraft artillery systems and 14 combat control centers). According to Defense Express sources, if necessary, the Korkut self-propelled air defense system can be delivered to Ukraine in a short time and from the Turkish Armed Forces' stocks. As previously reported by Defense Express, delivery options were discussed in November 2022.

A comparison of Korkut and Skynex, which have the advantage of using programmable airburst munitions of their own systems (ATOM and AHEAD, respectively), may also provide food for thought. Undoubtedly, each of these systems can have its advantages.

Skynex can be more mobile when deployed and used in the presence of a well-developed road network. But this advantage can also turn into a disadvantage when it comes to using this system to provide cover for troops directly on the battlefield. Unlike the Korkut, the Skynex is built on a wheeled chassis, albeit a highly cross-country one, which has certain limitations in terms of movement on the battlefield. In addition, there is currently no confirmed information on the capabilities of this system to fire on the move, which Korkut can boast of.

Along with the positive statements about the possibility of cooperation with the Ukrainian industry under this system (it is unclear what this could mean), the dependence on Switzerland in certain matters looks like a whirlpool of uncertainty. This country may have its own opinions on allowing the transfer of certain technologies owned by it, which may differ significantly from the approaches of Rheinmetall's management.

It should also be noted that, in addition to the possibility of Switzerland blocking the supply of AHEAD programmable airburst munitions to Ukraine, which in itself offsets a number of advantages for the Armed Forces of Ukraine from possessing an expensive modern system, the cost of such munitions may be a disadvantage, which may be several times higher than the Turkish ATOM.

In this regard, it is important to emphasize that, according to Defense Express sources, the issues that may be discussed in the process of preparing an agreement to supply Ukraine with Turkish Korkut air defense systems may include the possibility of transferring to our country the technology for manufacturing this unique programmable air burst munition and deploying the relevant production in Ukraine. This is important and strategically interesting in terms of the possibility of accumulating and developing technologies and competencies that are critical to ensuring the defense capability of our country.

Earlier, Defense Express also reported that in case of procurement of these systems, the developer offers to train personnel to ensure maximum field support and provides a standard offer to localize the production of the Korkut system in case of a request from the Ukrainian side.

The fact that a representative office of Aselsan (Aselsan Ukraine) has been operating in Ukraine for several years and a technical support center for the company's products supplied to the security and defense sector of Ukraine has been opened may also contribute to the rapid movement towards the development of fruitful cooperation.

It should also be noted here that the decision to purchase the Korkut system may also be a step toward unifying the air defense systems used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It is worth mentioning that the Ukrainian Navy's lead corvette, the Hetman Ivan Mazepa, will be equipped with the Gökdeniz system, which is related to Korkut, with the prospect of installing it on the rest of the Turkish corvette series for Ukraine. With this in mind, the Ukrainian Navy will also need ATOM programmable airburst munitions, and preferably domestically produced.

Despite certain peculiarities of the Turkish authorities' approaches to the supply of weapons systems to Ukraine, the example of the practical implementation of the project of construction of a drone production plant in Ukraine by the Turkish company Baykar Defense inspires optimism about the possibility of a plant for the production of Turkish 35-mm programmable ammunition in our country.

This could potentially happen as a result of a possible deal to sell Aselsan's Korkut air defense systems. Given the possible approaches of the Turkish government, it is likely that a positive decision on the sale of these systems could be facilitated by the fact that they are not offensive weapons, but rather weapons designed to protect infrastructure and civilians. In addition, Moscow's de-march to withdraw from the Black Sea Grain Initiative creates new incentives for Ankara to expand its support for Ukraine and develop cooperation with our country.

Korkut, Gepard, Skynex – Ukraine needs everything and soon

As the winter period approaches, Russian soldiers are likely to return to the tactic of terrorizing the population of Ukraine by attacking energy infrastructure facilities. Therefore, saturation of the air defense system with short-range means to combat 'kamikaze' drones, cruise missiles and air-to-ground missiles, as well as increasing the number of army air defense systems to cover troops in the course of their combat missions in all types of combat is one of the most important tasks. With this in mind, we should not lose sight of the possibility of further cooperation with Ukraine's partners in obtaining further batches of Gepard anti-aircraft tanks and increasing the number of Skynex systems, all of which will come in handy now.

It can also be stated that the Turkish Korkut may be the best solution to fulfill the above tasks and, as it seems, can be deployed before the onset of a new "season" of Russian terror. The appearance of Turkish anti-aircraft artillery systems in Ukraine, in addition to German anti-aircraft artillery systems, would allow Ukraine to protect several more facilities, and at the same time make a start in terms of accumulating technologies critical to the country's defense capability and create the production of programmable explosive airburst munitions and the possibility of their production in Ukraine, while also ensuring a certain unification of ground-based anti-aircraft systems with those installed on new Ukrainian corvettes. The possibility of localizing the production of these systems in Ukraine should not be ruled out.

It should not be forgotten that while Ukraine has great potential to develop its own anti-aircraft missile systems, it can only dream of developing its own anti-aircraft artillery systems. Or it can be developed through mutually beneficial cooperation with partners, mutually reinforcing each other - especially those with whom we have a positive common history.