Belarusians must be freed quickly from Russian propaganda - opposition activist

It was then that he founded and started the work of the Belarusian nationalist military society White Legion. In 1996, the Belarusian KGB took Sergei Bulba to the forest, after which he experienced clinical death, and later had to flee from the actions of the authorities, because he understood that Lukashenko had no inhibitions. Then he even tried to organize a military coup, helped by his comrades from Ukraine. But the attempt was not successful - the generals got scared. From that moment on, there was no place for Segei in his homeland.  Homes were Tibet, India, and Latin America. He says that there are no special options even now, because he sees that the public can actually win now.

How will the Belarusian issue be resolved in the future? Will Lukashenko's troops go to Ukraine? Why did the Belarusians not use their chance during the protests in 2020? Espreso TV talked about this and other things with the Belarusian oppositionist.

"For Belarusians, this is not someone else's war at all, our future is being decided here" 

I read that your relatives are being persecuted in Belarus because of your interviews. Is it true? Are you not afraid to give me an interview now?

They ransacked my mother's apartment, forced me to shoot a video, and asked me to stop doing what I was doing. But I am sure that the fate of Belarus is being decided now in Ukraine. For Belarusians, this is not someone else's war at all, our future is being decided here. Therefore, I asked my mother to understand me, I told her: "I understand that you have problems, you are under pressure, but don't ask me to back down. I will help Ukraine in whatever way I can, because our future depends on it".

Mr. Sergei, two years ago there were very massive protests in Belarus, which actually did not lead to anything. Now, looking back on those events, do you think there was a chance for success? What should have been done for this or what was done wrong?

For Belarus, 2020 is like 2003-2004 for Ukrainians or even "Ukraine without Kuchma". We still need to grow and grow to the level of Ukraine. Starting in 1996, Lukashenko actually conducted pre-sale preparations for Belarus. Consecutively - step by step he carried out the concept of surrender - prepared a gradual absorption so that there would be no indignation, no resistance. During this time, Lukashenko destroyed the language and many other things.

Actually, I want to ask about the situation of the Belarusian language. How did it get worse under Lukashenko, or has it been deplorable since Soviet times? Many people are now switching to Ukrainian, but what percentage of Belarusians speak their native language?

During this time, Lukashenko simply destroyed the language. Nowadays, it is difficult to find a Belarusian school, a Belarusian kindergarten, and you won't hear the Belarusian language on television. In fact, the Belarusian language is not actually banned, but Russian is preferred. Belarusian is usually used by those who are against the government, and the language has become a sign of opposition and disagreement with the regime.

Was Lukashenko's transformation into a dictator a gradual process? After all, in 1994, candidate Lukashenko criticized the communists, promised to fight corruption and make the press free. How did it all change?

At that time, in 1994, there was a politician in Belarus, Zenon Pozniak, who stood on patriotic, sometimes even nationalist positions.  And in the first elections, if Moscow had not bet on Lukashenko, then, I think, Pozniak had a chance to win. But Moscow immediately bet on Lukashenko, because he is a completely Soviet person with Soviet brains. They hoped that he would eventually become the initiator of the restoration of the USSR. It was important to them then and remains important to this day. They constantly dream of restoring the Soviet Union.

And Lukashenko won the first elections because the people believed him then. When he was young, he looked good against the background of boring closed-off Soviet figures, like Vyacheslav Kebich - the then prime minister of Belarus, who went with Lukashenko in the 2nd round. The people believed Lukashenko's statements about the fight against corruption and so on. Now we understand that it was just PR talks. He took advantage of the mood of the people and voiced what people wanted to hear. In fact, Lukashenko never fought corruption, he simply led it. If there are many oligarchs in Ukraine and it is possible to slip between them, then we have only one oligarch - he suppressed everything possible, built his vertical, and adjusted everything to himself.

Did the Belarusians miss the moment when Lukashenko could have been stopped? Did they just not try hard enough, or did the majority not really want to stop him?

This is a difficult question. In 1996, when the first documents on the union with Russia were just signed, many Belarusians went out and protested. But even then, the government fundamentally decided to break the will of its people. In the 1990s and 2000s, I sometimes asked Ukrainian friends: "When you last went to a demonstration, were you beaten on the shoulder with a baton or arrested?" And they answered in surprise: "And for what?". And we have had a decision since 1996, and they consistently and constantly punished people for showing public discontent. In various ways - either fines, or arrest for 15 days, or simply beaten with a baton at a rally. This has led to the fact that after going out several times and being caned, a person wonders if there is any sense in this.

In addition, the leadership of our opposition has taken a strange position regarding actions exclusively by legal methods. And so it turned out that for Lukashenko there were no rules of the game and he did whatever he wanted. And on the other hand, the opposition leaders said "no, no, we have very serious rules, everything must be strictly according to the law and we cannot violate anything". It is a strange situation when there are no rules for some, and others are afraid to take a step to the left or right. That is, the protest potential was there, but the opposition leaders acted very ineffectively. Maybe they were secretly controlled, I don't know.

"Lukashenko is very important for Moscow - he has Soviet brains"

Many people probably still voted for Lukashenko in different years. What kind of people were they? Those who are nostalgic for the USSR? Russophiles? Those who believe in television? Just indifferent people who care not to be touched?

First of all, we have such an established electorate of 5-7 percent - they are supporters of the "Russian world". They have traditionally, since the 90s, voted for Lukashenko and supported him. These are mainly Russians, former "retirees" who came to the USSR with their families. They were given housing in Belarus and did not want to return to their Perm or Yekaterinburg. The other layer (those who began to be oppressed and expelled after 2020) are people who know a little about Belarusian history, know that we are descendants of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, that we are Lithuanians. These are the pro-Western people who at one time supported Pozniak. And the largest layer, at 60 percent, is the so-called "BSSR patriots". They seem to be in favor of Belarus, although at the same time they are not against the alliance with Russia. Usually, Lukashenko had his 25-30%, which was formed from pro-Russian citizens, and another 20% came from Belarusians who believed in stability. They were told that everything is still good here, but in Ukraine there are Maidans and instability. It can be said that a piece of the Soviet Union was preserved.

Are you currently communicating with people who are in Belarus? What is the mood there? I mean both the attitude towards Lukashenko and the attitude towards the Russian-Ukrainian war.

In 2013-14, we made a lot of efforts to officially present Ukrainian television in Belarus. At one time, we managed to agree with Poroshenko to create a joint TV channel. At a certain stage, they began to move and to select a directorate. But then the Belarusians said that Moscow was against it. This is the reason for the refusal, although it is unlikely that Moscow got involved, probably the Belarusians themselves did not want to. It is necessary to understand that for our BSSR, post-Soviet Belarusians, the word "Moscow" is not as scary as the word "Maidan". And Lukashenko perfectly understands his 20-25% of the electorate, which the CEC smears to 75-80%. This group of the population has its own concept, they have decided for themselves that they need to walk between the Russians and the nationalists. We are all strangers to them, and they themselves are "BSSR people", they are all so good, and they love "White Russia with ruffles", without history and without roots.

Is the history of Belarus taught with pro-Russian narratives?

You see, I finished school back in the Soviet Union and we studied our history as part of the subject of world history. At that time, the thought that we Belarusians, Lithuanians, successfully fought with the German crusaders and so on could not even occur in my head. In the BSSR-style school curriculum, it is forbidden to understand that Belarus has deep roots, and for them the history of Belarus begins in 1918. Lukashenko has his own complexes about this, genetic birth psychotrauma, or something. But with regard to the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, especially the Commonwealth of Nations, he is absolutely sure that only Polish lords oppressed Belarusian peasants there. It looks so incurable that even I am sometimes surprised. That is why he is very important for Moscow - he has such Soviet brains that he fits them very well.

As for the attitude towards recent events, a public opinion poll was recently conducted in Belarus. The sample, although it was small, but, in principle, gives a general understanding of the picture. And it turns out that 95% of Belarusians are against the war. But at the same time, 45% support Russia's actions. But you need to understand that Belarus lives in the Russian information space. There, it was not possible to extend the Ukrainian channels to the territory of Belarus. Even before 2020, Belarusian television was formed by people who called for neutrality - they say, we are not for those and not for others, for none. But the year before last, the Russians sent their agitators and propagandists, even to the staff of Belarusian television. Since then, the narratives have started to change, and they now serve Russian propaganda. And such actions are beginning to bear fruit.

In 2020, after the protests in Belarus, anti-Russian sentiment was quite strong, everyone realized that Putin is the same scumbag as Lukashenko. Because before that, some hoped that the just Putin would help overthrow the usurper Lukashenka, and Putin sincerely and openly supported him. Then many Belarusians were disappointed and anti-Russian sentiments appeared. But now they are much smaller, because the Russian TV is winning, which tells about the special operation and the evil people of Bandera. And those who watch television sincerely believe it.

When rockets fly into Ukraine from the territory of Belarus, Ukrainians feel such feelings as anger, rage, and they are addressed not only to Lukashenko, but also to the passive citizens of Belarus. Do you think Belarusians can change something? And will today's events not harm Ukrainian-Belarusian relations, which have always been quite warm at the grassroots, everyday level.

There is a whole problem with this. When the crew with Belarusian passports came to the front in 2014 and brought the necessary help, the military thanked them and said that they were pleased to know that they had such brothers. Now, of course, the attitude has deteriorated a lot. There is one such serious problem and it probably concerns psychology.  Belarusians cannot come to an understanding with Ukrainians in the sense that they say "it's not us, it's all Lukashenko and Putin". And Ukrainians have a different attitude - they understand that the government is responsible to them. For Belarusians: "the government lives by itself, and we also live by ourselves, we do not influence anything". You have already used to changing the government with your Maidans when the people did not like it. And we have the same ones for 30 years and people actually have no influence on them.

In addition, I would question Lukashenko's subjectivity in general. About seven hundred rockets came from the Belarusian side. Do you think Lukashenko wanted rockets to fly from the territory he controlled? Oh no. It's just that Putin doesn't ask him anymore and doesn't pay attention to him at all.

Sergei Bulba, founder of the Belarusian White Legion

"Belarusian troops are unlikely to have any influence on the course of the war in Ukraine"

Do you think that Belarusian troops will attack Ukraine? Why haven't they gone yet?

Here again the question of Lukashenko's subjectivity arises. Because, if Putin wanted, the Belarusian troops would have been drawn into the war a long time ago. It is necessary to understand that Putin has agents in all Belarusian structures. He has information that the Belarusians do not want to fight at all. Many Belarusian soldiers graduated from educational institutions in Ukraine. And the Russians were frightened, they concluded that if the Belarusian troops were sent to the territory of Ukraine, they would, on the contrary, surrender together with the equipment and go over to the side of Ukraine. This confuses them a lot. That is why the Belarusian Ministry of Defense is now firing everyone who is of Ukrainian origin, firing conscious Belarusians who have their own position. In their places, in high officer positions, bad guys are put - only because they think in the categories of "Russian world". When this purge ends, I will not be surprised if Putin does drag Belarusian troops into Ukraine.

How does this offensive threaten Ukraine, and how does it threaten Belarus?

From what we can see, there are now 8-10 battalion-tactical groups, three brigades of special operations forces, the 120th Motorized Infantry Brigade is stationed near Minsk - this is all the combat-ready forces that can be directed. To be honest, these troops are unlikely to have any influence on the course of the war in Ukraine. This is not such a power that is capable of changing anything, it will only distract the forces of Ukrainians. All the more so because the Ukrainian Armed Forces are fired at all positions. The worst thing that can happen is if the Russians manage to keep Belarusians and Ukrainians at loggerheads for a long time.

How do you think the war in Ukraine will end?

I am sure that Ukraine will win, because I can see what a spirit, what a national elation. I would be very happy if Belarusians reached the same level of national consciousness. The only question is when Ukraine will win. I hope that the victory will be complete, that Berlin-1945 will also be in Moscow in the year 2020. Because for many years there was no personification of this universal evil in the world, and today it is very clearly defined. It must be defeated.

How do you see the future of Belarus in 5 or 10 years? Try to predict what will happen in the country.

Difficult question. Many people left Belarus for its borders. It is not worth hoping that the diaspora will have a strong influence on what is happening inside the country. There are no defined leaders in the opposition-minded diaspora. I perceive Tsikhanouskaya and her associates as people who eat grants, not waging a real struggle. And it is not known whether those passionate people who remained in Belarus will be able to do something. But in any case, you need to look for potential and solve problems from within.