US intelligence believes Ukraine has chance to break through Russian defense lines by end of year

Trent Maul, director of analysis at the Defense Intelligence Agency, told The Economist.

According to him, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have already broken through the first line of Russian defense near Robotyne and are now attacking the second.

"Had we had this conversation two weeks ago, I would have been slightly more pessimistic. Their (Ukrainian Armed Forces - ed.) breakthrough on that second defensive belt…is actually pretty considerable," Maul commented.

He noted that US and Ukrainian officials failed to assess the depth of Russia's defenses and how difficult it would be for Ukraine to break through them. In addition, Ukrainian officers told the Guardian that 80% of Russia's efforts have gone into building the first and second lines of defense. In his turn, Maul warns that the third line of defense is still strong.

The newspaper notes that in recent weeks, US officials have privately criticized Ukrainian commanders over their military strategy, including the decision to deploy experienced units in the east around Bakhmut rather than on a key line in the south. In turn, an intelligence official says that such a decision could lead to greater success in a shorter time.

"We can discuss whether the Ukrainians have used tactics that will yield more aggressive success in a shorter time," he said.

It is emphasized that two critical variables are now more important: Ukraine's ammunition stockpile and the weather in the fall.

One Biden administration official claims that Ukraine has about 6-7 weeks of fighting left before the culmination of its offensive.  Maul, on the other hand, is more optimistic, as Sergey Surovikin, who commanded the Russian army in Ukraine, was fired and Yevgeny Prigozhin, a financier of the Wagner PMC, was killed.

According to the intelligence official, Ukraine's recent successes are "considerable" and give its forces a "realistic opportunity" - with a 40-50% chance - to break through the remaining Russian defense lines by the end of the year. However, he warns that limited ammunition and worsening weather will make this task "very difficult."

He also notes that even if there is no breakthrough this year, if Ukraine can expand its offensive around Robotyne, hold its positions, and continue to receive ammunition, it will have good opportunities for a new boost in 2024.

Ukrainian Armed Forces counteroffensive in the south: chronology

On the morning of June 12, Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had liberated 7 settlements and advanced 6.5 kilometers.

Later it was reported that the AFU liberated Pyatykhatky, Zaporizhzhia region, and advanced up to 7 km in the Tavria direction.

On June 24, the Ukrainian Defense Forces officially confirmed the liberation of the territories near Krasnohorivka in the Donetsk region, which had been under occupation since 2014.

On June 26, the Ukrainian troops had de-occupied the village of Rivnopil, Donetsk region. It is located in the Volnovakha district of the Donetsk region. The Russian army occupied the village in March 2022.

On July 5, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy established ten military administrations in Zaporizhzhia region and appointed their heads.

On July 27, the AFU liberated the village of Staromayorske in Donetsk region.

On July 31, it was reported that during the counteroffensive, the Ukrainian military liberated more than 204 square kilometers of territory in the south, and another 37 square kilometers in the Bakhmut direction.

On August 4, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said that the Defense Forces had already broken through the first line of defense in the south and moved to the intermediate line.

On August 10, it was reported that the Defense Forces had partial success near Urozhayne and Staromayorske, and were entrenched near Bakhmut.

On August 16, the Ukrainian military completely liberated Urozhayne in the Donetsk region. Defense forces are consolidating their positions.
On August 23, the General Staff reported that the Defense Forces had made progress and were gaining ground in Novodanylivka and Novoprokopivka in the Zaporizhzhia region.

On August 27, the spokesperson for the Tavria Defense Forces press center, Oleksandr Stupun, said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were advancing south of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia region to the village of Novoprokopivka.

On August 28, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry confirmed the liberation of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia region.