Russia’s defense is fragile, it is only a matter of time before artillery breaches it - military expert Zgurets

He shared his opinions with Espreso TV.

"Let's recall the situation around Bakhmut, where the 72nd separate motorized rifle brigade of the Russian Federation is stationed, whose representatives complained about the lack of ammunition. And when we look at the southern front, I think the enemy's defense is fragile. In any case, we can see that all the enemy's tactical and operational reserves are deployed on the southern front. Their ability to find new reserves is quite limited. Now it is only a matter of time before our artillery grinds down the Russian defense lines. According to various estimates, this process may take from 2 to 4 months. We are now saying that the first month has passed with tactical successes and a test of the resilience of Russian defense. Conclusions have been drawn, and the emphasis will be on artillery, and this is what should ensure the future of the enemy’s defense. And cluster munitions will significantly help break through the enemy's defense," the military expert said.

Zgurets notes that further developments will show how well Russian units are able to withstand the pressure of the Ukrainian army.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive

On June 4, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a counteroffensive on the southern frontline, continuing a series of offensives near Bakhmut and in other directions.

On June 11, the Ukrainian Armed Forces announced the liberation of Blahodatne, Neskuchne, and Makarivka settlements, near the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. On the morning of June 12, Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said that the Ukrainian state flag was raised again over Storozhove, Donetsk region.

On June 24, the Ukrainian Defense Forces officially confirmed the liberation of the territories near Krasnohorivka in the Donetsk region, which had been under occupation since 2014.

On June 26, Hanna Maliar reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have advanced 1 to 2 kilometers on the eastern frontline in the past week. During the offensive in the southern direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces liberated 130 square kilometers. The Ukrainian Armed Forces also de-occupied the village of Rivnopil, Donetsk region. 

British Defence Minister Ben Wallace stated that Ukraine has already liberated more territory as part of the summer counteroffensive campaign than Russia had captured during the entire winter offensive.

But Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov stated that the already liberated settlements were not the "main event" but rather the prelude to a major counteroffensive.

Specialists of the Institute for the Study of War believe that the Russian military is likely to bring additional forces to Bakhmut from other directions in response to Ukrainian offensive operations in the area.

On the morning of July 3, Hanna Maliar reported that the Ukrainian military liberated about 38 square kilometers. 

On July 4, it was reported that Ukrainian military forces were advancing on the southern flank around Bakhmut in Donetsk region and in the south.

On July 6, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were advancing and consolidating their positions in 3 areas, namely Bakhmut, Melitopol and Berdiansk, while holding the defense line in Kupyansk.

On July 7, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar reported that the Defense Forces were advancing on the flanks of Bakhmut and grinding the enemy to a halt in the south, with the ratio of Russian army losses being more than five times higher.

Also on Saturday, July 8, it was reported that the Ukrainian military had achieved tactically significant gains in the area of Bakhmut. At the same time, Ukrainian forces continued their counteroffensive in at least three other areas of the front.

On July 9, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander of the Land Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, said that Ukrainian troops continue to advance in the Bakhmut direction, and that Russian forces are getting trapped in some places.

On July 10, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that 24 km² had been liberated in the Bakhmut direction and 169 km² on the southern front.