Russia likely to redeploy additional units from other directions to Bakhmut in response to Ukraine's counteroffensive - ISW 

This is stated in the ISW report.

The Russian army aims to maintain control over the occupied territory in the Bakhmut area and achieve an "informational victory."

Experts believe that if the reinforcements currently deployed by the occupiers are insufficient, the Russian command may face a difficult decision: either risk being in a dangerous position in the Kherson or Luhansk regions or start withdrawing forces from southern Ukraine.

Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty reported on July 1 that Russian forces recently transferred an unspecified Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) regiment from the Lyman direction (the area west of Kreminna) to the Bakhmut direction. Geolocated footage published on June 30 shows the 137th Guards Airborne Regiment (106th Airborne Division) operating south of Rozdolivka (18km north of Bakhmut). A Russian milblogger also claimed that elements of the 98th VDV Division are now operating in the Bakhmut direction.

Specialists from the Institute for the Study of War noted that they had previously observed elements of the 237th Air Assault Regiment (76th VDV Division) and the 331st Airborne Regiment (98th VDV Division) operating in the Lyman direction, although ISW has not seen any visual confirmation of elements of either formation near Bakhmut recently.

According to Cherevaty, the Russian army replaced the Airborne Forces regiment in the Lyman direction with unspecified "territorial defense" forces. This suggests that the Russian forces may redeploy more elite units to the Bakhmut area while replacing them with less capable formations.

As Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Hanna Maliar stated earlier, Russian troops transferred some of their most combat-ready units from the Kherson direction to the Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhia directions in the week following the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive on June 4.

Cherevaty mentioned that Bakhmut holds more propaganda value for the Russian forces than military advantage. It is possible that the Russian Federation is concentrating elite forces in the Bakhmut area to maintain the perceived informational victory resulting from the alleged capture of Bakhmut on May 21.

"If Russian reinforcements already sent to Bakhmut are insufficient to hold Russian gains in the area the Russian command may face difficult choices about whether to risk creating serious vulnerabilities in Kherson or Luhansk oblasts or to begin drawing forces away from southern Ukraine," summarizes the Institute for the Study of War.

• On July 1, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that the enemy's main efforts were focused on the Lyman, Bakhmut, and Marinka directions, with more than 30 combat clashes taking place during the day.