Russian forces today have no capabilities for large-scale actions - military expert Serhiy Zgurets

Russian forces in the hottest areas of the front

I'll start with an unexpected statement by John Kirby, a spokesman for the US National Security Council, in an interview with an American publication. Kirby said: "We know that in the spring when the weather improves, and it's already starting to improve, that we can expect the Russians to want to go on the offensive in some areas, and we don't know exactly where or how they'll do that. But we want to make sure that the Ukrainians are able to better defend themselves against that." 

The announcement of this offensive comes as a surprise, because a couple of days ago, the head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, said that the Russian enemy had moved to defense along the entire front line, except Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka, where active fighting is ongoing. 

How to combine these statements? I think that the enemy does not have the capability to conduct large-scale actions in addition to the areas where it is currently trying to push Ukraine's defense. All their forces and reserves are likely to be thrown into these hottest areas.

Bakhmut is holding on, the flanks are being held despite all the risks associated with the buildup of Russian forces and their attempts to break through Ukrainian defense. The situation in Avdiivka and Marinka is also difficult. 

However, regarding Avdiivka and Marinka, I would like us to take into account the statement of the spokesman for the Tavria direction, Oleksiy Dmytrashkivsky, who said that the Russian forces have again started to build up artillery power, firing at Ukrainian positions just like in February of this year when the so-called second Russian offensive on Donbas began. We see that Russia is trying to influence Ukrainian defense with the help of artillery.

In addition to artillery, aviation has also been added. The number of sorties by Russian aviation has increased with the use of glide bombs, and bombs used by Russian aircraft in general. According to the General Staff, as of the morning of April 25, the Russian enemy used aircraft 62 times, which is more than in previous periods. The aggressor is relying on aviation and artillery. The Russian army will continue to intensify its efforts in all these areas, where it has the best capabilities, both in terms of reserves and offensive actions.

Svatove-Kreminna section

The same applies to the Svatove-Kreminna area, which we mention less. But today, the commander of the Ground Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said that Russia is trying to push Ukrainian troops out of the Serebryanske forestry, which is south of Kreminna. The process of pushing them out has been going on for quite some time, but not as successfully as they would like.

Ihor Kostiuk, a fighter of the Legion of Freedom from the Lyman-Kreminna area, said that Russia is intensifying its activities. The adversary is using a lot of aircraft, their FAB-500 bombs and their S-300s are bothering us. Thanks to Ukraine's intelligence and communication between the fighters, we understand the direction of the attack in advance, but unfortunately, settlements in this area are being destroyed.

A fighter from the Legion of Freedom noted that the enemy is shelling relentlessly, chaotically, and very inaccurately. When reconnaissance data is received about where the strike should be and where it actually hits, there is a difference of kilometers. Each strike results in losses to Ukrainian infrastructure and often among civilians, military personnel, and comrades. 

Attacks from enemy infantry do not stop either. They use sabotage and reconnaissance groups, modern drones. They use various camouflage suits that do not allow for quality observation of them through thermal imagers. But the direction of Kreminna is holding strong, we are holding back the enemy, and destroying them in large numbers. On the Ukrainian front, we have dozens of kilometers of plantations, forests, and a high concentration of the Russian enemy. But Ukrainian defenders bravely hold back the aggressor.

Kostiuk added that they have repeatedly observed Lancet drones used by the Russian forces in this area. "We are counteracting using MANPADS and EWs, so we have options to fight them. The Ukrainian military comes up with different methods of fighting for every step they take. 

The opponent is also trying to destroy the Starlink communication system because it is of high quality, as there is actually no other communication, such as mobile communication or mobile Internet, in this area. Starlink is a high-quality technology, but the Russians are trying to harass us somehow, but they are not able to completely destroy the system. We are struggling with this, finding various options for electronic masking so that Ukrainian antennas can receive and transmit signals with high quality.

Informational chaos around the counteroffensive

Journalist Trehubov noted that from an informational point of view, the fact that a certain informational chaos and a large number of versions have arisen around the counteroffensive may actually be beneficial. 

On the other hand, if we are talking about societal expectations, then such a scheme is not the worst, because it would be worse if society were saying: why are we only retreating? It's better to have people waiting for good news. It's also good that the counteroffensive is expected in the West, as they invest in it, the main thing is that their expectations are justified. However, we cannot predict how the result of the counteroffensive will be perceived, because there is a difference between military success and the perception of success by the average citizen.

I will continue Trehubov's comment about Ukraine's counteroffensive, which we should actually call an offensive, because when it comes to counteroffensive, we are ideologically based on the fact that we are taking our steps in response to the enemy's offensive. 

Now the main challenge is to ensure that Ukrainian brigades are fully equipped and provided with everything necessary for the offensive. After that, it will be a matter of time and place. The Ukrainian military and politicians are now trying to pressure Ukraine's foreign partners to provide us with sufficient ammunition. 

We understand that when everyone remembers Operation Desert Storm, the 100 hours of active operations were the result of a month of aviation destroying enemy targets. And when we recall the liberation of Kharkiv and the right bank of Kherson region, these operations were preceded by 2-3 months of active operations, when we used artillery to thin Russia's defense and destroy centers of power. 

So this new offensive operation, wherever it begins, will still have prerequisites - active artillery operations related to the grinding of Russia's defense. The main emphasis of Ukraine's military and political leadership is on the amount of reserve training, which will be an important element and prerequisite for the Ukrainian offensive to be successful.