Russian military leadership plans to capture Bakhmut before Ukrainian counteroffensive – ISW

This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

"The current Russian pattern of commitment around Bakhmut suggests that the Russian military leadership is increasingly prioritizing the completion of the capture of the city before the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive if possible," the report said.

It is reported that Wagner PMC continues to suffer heavy losses. It may well be able to complete the seizure of the city at some point.

In order to support the advance of Wagner in Bakhmut, the Russian Ministry of Defense engaged the VDV unit to fully concentrate Wagner on urban battles.

"VDV units near Bakhmut are likely further removed from direct, highly attritional urban combat than Wagner elements, and will thus likely emerge from the battle for Bakhmut in substantially better shape than Wagner," the agency writes.

The Institute writes that the “Lystan” volunteer detachment, part of the “Don” Cossack” formation, claimed to be fighting near Bakhmut as of March 18.

Analysts noted that some Russian irregular formations also operate near Bakhmut, although they are more limited in capabilities than Wagner.

Russian troops are conducting active offensive operations in five directions - Kupiansk, Luhansk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka - Donetsk and western Donetsk/eastern Zaporizhzhia. They also mainly conduct defensive operations in the area of western Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

"The forces currently committed to both offensive and defensive operations in Ukraine are both regular (doctrinally consistent based on Russian pre-war units) and irregular (non-standard and non-doctrinal) forces, and it is highly likely that the majority of Russian elements throughout Ukraine are substantially below full strength due to losses taken during previous phases of the war. This report will discuss “elements” of certain units and formations deployed to certain areas, but it should not be assumed that any of these units or formations are operating at full strength," the report added.

• According to an ISW report, in Bakhmut, the Wagner fighters seized the "Bakhmut-2" railway station, but the "route of life" is under Ukrainian control.

• Wagner’s owner Yevgeny Prigozhin said that from now on, his fighters will not take Ukrainian prisoners.