Ukraine has intel allowing strikes on targets deep inside Russia. Serhiy Zgurets' column

Ukrainian Armed Forces' strikes on Russian targets

On the night of March 10, Ukrainian drones attacked an oil refinery in the Samara region of the Russian Federation, which, among other things, produces fuel for Russian jet aircraft. This refinery is located 800 kilometers into the interior of the Russian Federation. This is not the first time we have attacked this plant, as the air corridors are trampled, and repeated attacks are carried out after the enemy regains some of its capabilities. To protect against drones, the enemy is now trying to wrap the hydrocarbon tanks with protective nets that should protect the plant from drone attacks, but they did not have time to finish it, and once again Ukrainian drones struck this refinery.

In light of reports of restrictions on U.S. intelligence information and its impact on these tasks, I would say that we have done a lot of preparatory work on many Russian targets, including defense and energy facilities. We have accumulated the necessary data on strategic targets, which allows us to fulfill the task of reducing the enemy's defense and industrial potential through systematic strikes on the territory of the Russian Federation.

The main task now is to scale up the strikes, which is actually being done, and we are also looking for alternatives to American intelligence. France is currently offering us its satellite imagery as compensation for the imagery that is being delayed by the United States. We understand that relying on the United States no longer works, so we need to look for alternatives, and the Armed Forces are doing so now.

Regarding the scaling up of the use of drones, I would like to mention that today, on March 10, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, held a traditional monthly meeting on the development of unmanned systems, during which he reported that in February, 22% more Russian targets were hit and destroyed compared to January. Specific figures were not given, but it can be assumed that this is tens of thousands of pieces of equipment, weapons, and manpower. The Commander-in-Chief also noted that the experience of individual units of unmanned aerial systems should be scaled up to other structures of the Armed Forces. He cited several well-known examples, including the Magyar Birds brigade and the Achilles regiment of unmanned systems.

Kupyansk direction

Yuriy Fedorenko, commander of the 429th separate regiment of Achilles unmanned systems, noted that Kupyansk district is not homogeneous in its defense, so it is necessary to consider this area in the context of time: how the Russians operate and what is happening on the line of contact. Starting with Kupyansk on the left bank and Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi, it should be said that this is the distance where the Russian troops came closest to the administrative boundaries of Kupyansk. However, the Russian invaders were tasked with taking control of Kupyansk Left Bank and Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi by November 1, 2024. Ukraine's defense forces have been effectively destroying the enemy and continue to do so. As a result, the Russian forces did not manage to implement their plans by November 1, December 1, or the New Year. It is now March, and the Defense Forces continue to hold Kupyansk left bank and Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi.

Ukraine Russia war live map, March 1-8, Photo: Espreso

The commander of the 429th separate regiment of unmanned systems Achilles said that in 2024 the Russian forces managed to achieve a certain result near the village of Kruhliakivka. The Russians cut the grouping of the Ukrainian Defense Forces into two parts, trying to make this wedge as wide as possible, extending it to the village of Zahryzove and up to Kolesnykivka. However, this wedge was blocked by the Ukrainian Defense Forces and remains blocked. The occupiers have not been successful in expanding the wedge, and therefore cannot bring closer firepower, guns and pilots that could take the right-bank Kupyansk district under fire control.

The serviceman added that the fighting is quite fierce. The Russian troops periodically use lightly armored and armored vehicles. The 1st Bureviy Operational Brigade, the 77th Airmobile Brigade, the 429th Achilles Regiment and other structural units are performing a combat mission, holding this section, and the Russians are currently not successful. Since the invaders were unable to achieve the results they set out to achieve head-on, they began to resort to the tactic of "masquerade". The occupiers disguise themselves as civilians or military, trying to get behind the defense forces' backs in order to carry out provocative actions to influence our mortar launchers and pilots.

The officer explained that the Russian occupiers have been using this tactic since the beginning of the full-scale war. They had revealed the enemy, and as a result, there was no success in infiltration either. Then the occupiers moved upstream to the area of Dvorichna, which was Novomlynsk at the time, in 2024. Since the river is quite narrow, they blew up the locks. It was foggy, and the Russians managed to cross the river on rafts and boats and take the right bank bridgehead. However, the enemy was blocked by the Edelweiss Brigade and the 429th Achilles Regiment and pushed back into the Oskil River. A blue and yellow flag flew over Novomlynsk. The invaders moved higher, using this tactic to gain ground in the area of Dvorichna: they took a bridgehead and are trying to prepare the banks in engineering terms in order to set up regular crossings. The Russian forces need the crossing in order to transfer additional provisions and ammunition to their manpower, to bring in cannon artillery and to be able to carry out operations with lightly armored, armored, highly maneuverable vehicles.

Fedorenko noted that the Ukrainian Defense Forces are currently controlling the waterway and inflicting constant fire damage, the Russians cannot prepare the banks and set up regular crossings, so it continues to conduct manpower assaults. The Ukrainian defense forces are taking measures to stabilize the situation because they need to block the Russian troops. How is the result of blocking and pushing the enemy back achieved? 

There are three components here. The first is the well-coordinated work of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, which hold their positions on the designated lines. The second is the continued support of the Ukrainian nation, in particular, thanks to fiber-optic drones that allow us to remotely engage the Russians on the approach to the Ukrainian front lines. And the third, the main resource that the state and the Ukrainian Defense Forces have is people. Behind every drone, machine gun, grenade launcher, tank or cannon is a live person who is professionally trained to perform the task. Therefore, we urge all persons liable for military service to take advantage of the recruitment program, contact the First Recruitment Center of the Land Forces and get acquainted with the information and benefits of joining the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Kursk direction

In addition to the situation in Kupyansk, as described by Yuriy Fedorenko, there is another area where both sides are heavily using drones, and the dynamics are active and complex - Kursk region. As of the evening of March 10, it is known that the enemy is trying to put pressure in the same areas that it attacked on the weekend of March 8 and 9.

Ukraine Russia war live map, March 1-8, Photo: Espreso

The orange area on the map above the yellow area is the areas in the north and northeast where the Russian forces are trying to launch attacks from Cherkasy Porichne, from Pravda near Ivashkivskyi village. This is actually the area of the north and northeast where active hostilities are taking place and where Ukrainian troops have retreated to more prepared positions, as our leadership says. The main threat is our logistics.

The Russians are using various methods to influence Ukrainian defense. We know that the other day there was a story when Russian soldiers tried to move along the pipes of the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhhorod gas pipeline for 12 kilometers. This gas pipeline has five parallel pipes: three pipes are 1.4 meters in diameter and two are 1.2 meters in diameter. And the Russians tried to advance about 12 kilometers along one of the pipes, which is 1.4 meters in diameter, pulling ammunition and weapons on carts. Some of them did not make it and stayed in the pipe. And those who climbed out somewhere north of Sudzha were identified by Ukrainian airborne units and were hit with cluster munitions, which resulted in the Russian destruction.

According to preliminary data, we know that 100 Russian special forces tried to carry out these attacks. We don't know how many of them were killed, but I think it was a significant number. In fact, there was no Russian advance there.

In general, the situation in the Kursk region remains difficult. I will repeat the problem with logistics routes, namely the road from Sumy to Sudzha, and there is also a parallel road that is more or less adequate. Both of these roads are fired upon by Russian fiber-optic drones and artillery from the west and east, which makes it very difficult to supply Ukrainian troops.

Yesterday, there were comments from Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, who said that the situation in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation remains under the control of the Ukrainian Defense Forces and that there is no threat of encirclement of Ukrainian units. Indeed, I think there is no threat, because, despite the complexity of logistics, rotations can be carried out.

Two days ago I had a conversation with an officer of the 47th Brigade who told me that sometimes they have to walk up to 30 kilometers to complete a rotation. This situation is typical for other brigades as well. Because transportation is under threat, they move on foot, but it is extremely difficult when you need to transport ammunition, food, and water over such a distance.

What will happen next? Syrskyi did not answer this question, but said that the units are taking timely measures to maneuver to favorable defense lines, which is precisely what we discussed earlier, namely the withdrawal of Ukrainian brigades from the north and northeast. The Chief of Staff also said that solutions are being provided to strengthen Ukrainian units with electronic warfare and unmanned components, i.e. systems that are supposed to strike Russian targets and make it impossible for the enemy to use its unmanned systems.

However, the situation is not simple, it involves a certain combination of military and political tasks. We understand that the country's political leadership will insist on holding this area. Of course, our military can hold the line in quite critical conditions that are hard to imagine. But we need to understand the balance between political and military goals in this situation. I hope that an optimal solution will be found, and in some time we will see what exactly the decision of the Ukrainian side will look like regarding the situation related to the fighting in the Kursk region.