Ukraine's strike on Russian base in Kursk region, Moscow’s spring-summer offensive plans. Serhiy Zgurets’ column

Ukrainian Defense Forces struck a Russian army base

Yesterday, on April 15, a number of statements were made by both the Ukrainian General Staff and the military leadership regarding the situation at the front, changes in combat training, and structural reforms in the Security and Defense Forces, including the creation of a new army corps.

First of all, the General Staff stated that the Ukrainian Defense Forces, namely units of unmanned systems, Special Operations Forces and the Security Service of Ukraine, had hit the permanent deployment of the 448th Missile Brigade of the Russian Army, which launched a missile attack on the city of Sumy on Palm Sunday. Secondary detonation of ammunition was recorded in the warehouses of this brigade. The results of the strike are being clarified.

The General Staff informs that every Russian military unit, subdivision or serviceman who fires at peaceful Ukrainian cities and civilians will be identified and will definitely receive retribution. I would add that if it is possible to strike at Russian military units, no preconditions are needed. As long as the war continues, these are legitimate targets on the enemy's territory.

Frontline update

The dynamics of combat clashes remains extremely high along the entire frontline. The Russians are trying to seize the initiative, but not everywhere it succeeds. In the Donetsk region, Ukrainian troops regained control of the village of Dniproenergia in the Novopavlivka sector and improved the tactical situation in two more critical frontline areas.

Lieutenant General Serhiy Naiev, commander of the tactical group, said. According to him, during his two months in office, he managed to reduce the losses of his units' personnel by 20%. At the same time, Ukrainian forces destroyed a significant number of enemy manpower, Naiev said, citing 9,500 Russian troops, as well as 51 tanks, a large number of armored vehicles and automotive equipment.

We know that effective defense and offensive actions depend on many factors: manning of units, level of training of personnel, and quality of management.

In this context, we cannot but mention another important statement made today by the National Guard Commander Oleksandr Pivnenko, who said that the National Guard has created two army corps, headed by the commander of the 12th Special Forces Brigade Azov, Colonel Denys Prokopenko, and the commander of the 13th Special Forces Brigade Charter, Colonel Ihor Obolenskyi. In addition to the two corps within the National Guard, there are 16 other corps to be created: two air assault and one marine corps in the Armed Forces, which de jure existed before, and 13 new corps in the Land Forces.

We will discuss everything that is happening on the frontline - corps reforms, the search for new solutions to offset the Russian manpower advantage - later.

Viktor Kevliuk, a military expert at the Center for Defense Strategies, retired colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, believes that Russia's plan for a spring-summer offensive in the southwestern theater of operations may look something like this: the enemy will try to simultaneously break through to Kostiantynivka and Druzhkivka from the south, southeast and northeast, respectively, in the Toretsk and Kramatorsk directions. Then the Russian forces will try to reach Kramatorsk from the south, and the troops of the 25th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation, the West group, will try to break through from Lyman to Sloviansk.

The analyst added that Russian troops may also try to advance near Kupiansk, Lyman, Novopavlivka, or even in the direction of Zaporizhzhia. The military and political leadership of Ukraine considers the Pokrovsk direction an absolute priority for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, although the Russian success in this area brings it a little closer to the goal of the war. In addition, Russian troops apparently intend to create a buffer zone in the north of the Sumy region and threaten the city of Sumy from there. This is a very realistic scenario.

Ukraine Russia war live map, April 5-12, Photo: Espreso

The military expert said that he disagrees with the so-called attrition strategy. The Russians have no time to deplete the Ukrainian Defense Forces. The occupiers have been trying to do this for four years now, but without much success, and they themselves are significantly exhausted. Their resources are limited both in the choice of forces and in the means to continue this strategy. Therefore, it is inappropriate to talk about a war of attrition. The aggressor is likely to seek to achieve as much success as possible in a very short timeframe, given the high probability that the United States will force Russia to the negotiating table. Until then, the Russian Federation will try to seize as much Ukrainian territory as possible.

The reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine noted that statistically assessing the situation based on daily reports from the General Staff, the largest number of combat engagements is observed in the Pokrovsk, Kursk, Lyman, Toretsk and Kramatorsk directions. In terms of specific areas, in the Lyman sector, the Russian forces are trying to advance toward the village of Karlivka. In particular, attacks are being carried out from the village of Nove to the village of Drobysheve, from the area of the village of Kolodiazi.

The Russian invaders are trying to reach and gain a foothold at the Karlivka-Shandryholove-Drobysheve line to provide support to the 51st and 8th Combined Arms Armies advancing from the south on the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. As for the Toretsk and Kramatorsk directions, where these Russian forces are also operating, the 8th Army is trying to flank Ukrainian units in the area between Oleksandropol and Tarasivka in order to surround and defeat them. If this does not succeed, the invaders will try to push Ukrainian forces to the southwest, constantly posing a threat of encirclement.

The likely goal of the 8th Army is to break through to the Stepanivka-Berestok-Pleshchiivka-Yablunivka area. After that, we should expect a simultaneous assault on the city of Kostiantynivka from this direction and from the area of Chasiv Yar, where the Russian 98th Airborne Army is operating. It is likely to be reinforced by units of the 3rd Combined Arms Army and Luhansk separatists trying to break through to the Poltavka-Pleshchiyivka line. The activity in these areas, in my opinion, is the most significant so far. I'm not mentioning the Pokrovsk direction, it's a real hotbed of activity along the entire front line, with no exceptions. As for the south and Zaporizhzhia region, tactical actions are taking place in the “gray zone”: the aggressor is trying to improve its positions, but has not yet reached even the first line of defense of the Tavria unit.

The officer believes that the bigger problem is the lack of a doctrine that would describe alternative ways to achieve victory. After all, it is the doctrine that should determine what means we need. Based on this, we can draw a conclusion about our potential to obtain these means. If we recall the “line of drones,” this statement was made by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov on February 9. According to the minister, this project is aimed at integrating infantry and unmanned systems into a single strike system, which will create a 10-15 km deep strike zone where the enemy will not be able to move without losses. This is a budgetary analog to creating an exclusion zone, a doctrine that NATO has. But it is worth noting that normal commanders of UAV brigades and units have long created this, and in some places the depth of such a zone is 20-30 km. Therefore, in fact, there is already a better result than the minister intended. This project involves 5 best regiments of unmanned systems: “K-2, Achilles, Rarog, the Magyar Birds brigade, and Phoenix from the Revenge brigade. In this way, scaling up the positive experience of creating no-go zones is the right step.

Kevliuk said that the Land Forces Command is forming an assault military unit on the basis of the assault battalion of the 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade. Previously, this battalion was manned by fighters from the Ukrainian Volunteer Corps. It should be noted that the experience of forming assault units has been known since the First World War, when all sides were plunged into a positional war. Then the Germans began to form assault battalions, selecting the best fighters, then regiments, and then they reached assault divisions. And when the war ended, it turned out that the color of the German nation died in those “meat grinders.” Accordingly, with a battered gene pool, Germany had to solve purely demographic problems. There is also an example from our war - the battles for the Donetsk airport, when representatives of the Ukrainian Volunteer Corps were sent on missions along with paratroopers. According to Viktor, motivated, ideological fighters of the Volunteer Ukrainian Corps should be used as a grid for the formation of one or two mechanized brigades that are fully equipped. Accordingly, there is no need to gather such defenders into one unit in order not to lose the best ones.

Summarizing the conversation with our guest, I would like to note that it was an extremely interesting conversation, in which quite critical assessments of the measures taken to reform the Ukrainian Armed Forces were made.