ISW: Shoigu tries to portray Ukraine's counteroffensive as failed effort amid NATO summit

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War.

“Shoigu implausibly claimed on July 11 that Ukrainian forces have lost 26,000 servicemembers and 1,244 tanks and infantry fighting vehicles since starting counteroffensive operations on June 4,” the statement reads.

He also claimed that Russian air defenses have intercepted 176 HIMARS rockets and 27 Storm Shadow cruise missiles since the start of the counteroffensive.

ISW estimates that Russian MoD reporting on Ukrainian losses is likely highly inflated, and even Russian milbloggers have recently accused the MoD of counting strikes on already damaged and destroyed vehicles as new Ukrainian equipment losses.

“Shoigu’s rhetoric about the Ukrainian counteroffensive notably contradicts the Kremlin’s reported media guidance instructing Russian state media not to downplay the counteroffensive or overstate Russian successes,” analysts say.

In an effort to depict the MoD as a successful manager of the war in Ukraine in the wake of the Wagner Group's uprising, Shoigu may be disregarding established Kremlin guidelines on how to cover the counteroffensive more frequently.

What is known about the Ukrainian counteroffensive

• On June 4, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a counteroffensive on the southern frontline, continuing a series of offensives near Bakhmut and in other directions..

• On June 24, the Ukrainian Defense Forces officially confirmed the liberation of the territories near Krasnohorivka in the Donetsk region, which had been under occupation since 2014.

• On the morning of July 3, Hanna Maliar reported that the Defense Forces advanced in the southern and eastern directions. Over the past week, the Ukrainian military liberated about 38 square kilometers. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are advancing on the flanks and effectively destroying the Russians in the Bakhmut direction, but the situation is intense.

• On July 4, it was reported that Ukrainian military forces were advancing on the southern flank around Bakhmut in Donetsk region and in the south.

• On July 6, the Armed Forces made progress and secured positions in three areas: Bakhmut, Melitopol, and Berdyansk. However, they continued to defend Kupyansk.

• On July 7, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar reported that the Defense Forces were advancing on the flanks of Bakhmut and grinding the enemy to a halt in the south, with the ratio of Russian army losses being more than five times higher.

• Later, Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Chechnya, mentioned that the Chechen special unit Akhmat had been sent to the Bakhmut area, with Kadyrov's forces supposedly stationed in Klishchiivka.

• On July 10, Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of the Ground Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, emphasized that Bakhmut is under the control of Ukrainian Defense Forces. The General Staff of the Armed Forces highlighted that since the counteroffensive began, Ukrainian forces have liberated an area of approximately 169 km² in the Melitopol and Berdyansk areas, which is about the same size as Odesa. In the Bakhmut area, the Defense Forces have reclaimed 24 km² of Ukrainian territory.

• As of the evening of July 11, intense fighting continued in the Bakhmut area. Despite facing heavy enemy fire from aircraft and artillery, Ukrainian defenders successfully repelled enemy attacks near the Hryhorivka settlement and east of Orikhovo-Vasylivka. More than 10 settlements in the Donetsk region, including Vasyukivka, Bohdanivka, Khromove, Chasiv Yar, and Ivanivske, were affected by enemy artillery shelling.