War in Ukraine disrupts Russia's established national strategy - British Intelligence

This is reported by the Ministry of Defence of the United Kingdom.

It is noted that in Zaporizhzhia region, the 58th Combined Arms Army is defending heavily entrenched lines; normally it secures Russia's volatile Caucasus region.

But around Velyka Novosilka, the 5th Combined Arms Army and Naval Infantry hold the front; they are routinely based 7,000km away as a balance to Chinese power.

Also around Bakhmut, the defence is now largely formed around airborne regiments normally stationed in western Russia, who normally act as an lite rapid reaction force in case of tensions with NATO.

“The way Russia is accepting risks across Eurasia highlights how the war has dislocated Russia's established national strategy,“ the statement reads.

What we know about the Ukrainian counteroffensive

On June 4, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a counteroffensive on the southern frontline, continuing a series of offensives near Bakhmut and in other directions.

On June 11, the Ukrainian Armed Forces announced the liberation of Blahodatne, Neskuchne, and Makarivka settlements, near the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. On the morning of June 12, Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said that the Ukrainian state flag was raised again over Storozhove, Donetsk region.

On June 24, the Ukrainian Defense Forces officially confirmed the liberation of the territories near Krasnohorivka in the Donetsk region, which had been under occupation since 2014.

On June 26, Hanna Maliar reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have advanced 1 to 2 kilometers on the eastern frontline in the past week. During the offensive in the southern direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces liberated 130 square kilometers. The Ukrainian Armed Forces also de-occupied the village of Rivnopil, Donetsk region. 

British Defence Minister Ben Wallace stated that Ukraine has already liberated more territory as part of the summer counteroffensive campaign than Russia had captured during the entire winter offensive.

But Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov stated that the already liberated settlements were not the "main event" but rather the prelude to a major counteroffensive.

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War believe that the Russian military is likely to deploy additional forces from other areas near Bakhmut in response to Ukrainian offensives in the area.

On the morning of July 3, Hanna Maliar reported that the Defense Forces advanced in the southern and eastern directions. Over the past week, the Ukrainian military liberated about 38 square kilometers. 

On July 4, it was reported that Ukrainian military forces were advancing on the southern flank around Bakhmut in Donetsk region and in the south.