Wagner mercenaries are unlikely to continue fighting outside Bakhmut

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported the information.

According to the Ukrainian military, they control a small area of the southwestern part of Bakhmut around the T0504 highway. Experts believe that this statement by the Ukrainian Armed Forces is a tacit admission that Russian forces control the rest of the western and northwestern parts of Bakhmut, if not the entire city.

"These officials’ statements indicate that Ukrainian forces withdrew from the remaining areas in Bakhmut except those adjacent to the two highways into the city.  Geolocated footage published on May 21 showed Wagner forces raising Russian and Wagner flags over a residential building in westernmost Bakhmut. The Wagner Group’s likely capture of the last remaining small area of western Bakhmut does not impact ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks north or south of Bakhmut, nor does it impact Ukrainian control over the ground lines of communications (GLOCs) around Bakhmut that exhausted Wagner forces would need to reach in order to conduct further offensive operations," the report said.

The Russian army is likely to need additional reinforcements to hold the city of Bakhmut and its flanks through operations in other areas. ISW has spotted artillery units of the 132nd Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (previously spotted in the Avdiivka area) now operating in the Bakhmut direction.

Earlier, the Institute predicted that Wagner's offensive operations are likely to end after months of attritional urban combat, and it is unlikely that Wagner's forces will continue fighting outside of Bakhmut in its current depleted state.

Analysts noted that Wagner's forces were able to continue offensive operations in Bakhmut as Russian regular troops took over responsibility for the flanks of Bakhmut, allowing them to focus on urban combat.

Instead, Wagner mercenaries have begun to show signs that they will not be able to conduct offensive operations outside of Bakhmut from the end of December 2022. Experts also suggest that Russian regular forces stationed on the northern and southern flanks of Bakhmut are unlikely to move west toward Kostyantynivka or north toward Sloviansk amid Ukrainian counterattacks in the area in the near future.

"Russian conventional forces will be even more unlikely to pursue offensive operations if Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin delivers on his stated intent to withdraw Wagner personnel from Bakhmut City on May 25. It is currently unclear if Prigozhin will actually withdraw his forces from Bakhmut, but some milbloggers are speculating that Prigozhin will commit Wagner to a different “critical” frontline at the end of the month. Russian forces faced a similar culmination following highly attritional infantry attacks in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in June–July 2022," the report said.

• On May 20, the leader of Russian Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, released a video with a statement about the alleged complete occupation of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut by Russians. In response, Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Hanna Malyar said that there were heavy battles in Bakhmut and the situation was critical. At the same time, Ukrainian troops are holding the defense in the Litak district.

• The Ukrainian General Staff's evening (May 20) and morning (May 21) reports mentioned the ongoing battle for the city.

• The Russian Defense Ministry announced the capture of the city at midnight on May 21. 

• On May 21, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had taken Bakhmut in a semi-surrounding, which makes it possible to eliminate Russians - Russian troops in the controlled part of the city have to defend itself.

• On the same day, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky, commander of the Land Forces, said that Ukrainian soldiers were advancing along the flanks in the suburbs of Bakhmut and were actually approaching the city's tactical encirclement. 

• And the spokesman for the Eastern Group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Serhiy Cherevaty, emphasized that Ukrainian defenders advanced by about 200 meters in some areas near Bakhmut on Sunday. In addition, they continue to hold the southwestern part of the city.