Uncertainty on causes of aircraft crash in Bryansk region causes panic in Russia. Military expert Serhiy Zgurets

Ukrainian military successes in the Bakhmut direction

This week brought us a lot of positive news. First and foremost, it is the successful counterattacks of Ukrainian troops near Bakhmut and the retreat of Russian troops on the southern and northern flanks around the city, along with the deaths of a Russian brigade commander and deputy corps commander near Klishchiivka. Today, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry reported that on Sunday, May 14, the Ukrainian Defense Forces captured more than ten Russian positions on the outskirts of Bakhmut, cleared a large area of forest near Ivanivske, and captured some Russian soldiers. However, Russians continue to fight back, so it is extremely difficult on this section of the frontline and especially in the city.

Providing Ukraine with new weapons

In other news, Ukraine has received new weapons from the United Kingdom, Storm Shadow cruise missiles have already begun their just mission this week, and Germany. During today's visit of Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Berlin, Germany announced an aid package amounting to EUR 2.7 million. This is extremely powerful. The package includes the supply of Leopard-1 tanks, 20 Marder armored personnel carriers, 15 Gepard anti-aircraft systems, which are quite effective against enemy drones. The most important thing is four batteries of IRIS-T air defense systems with a significant number of missiles. The package accurately reflects Ukraine’s needs to strengthen air defense and reinforce brigades preparing for a counteroffensive.

Massive air crash in Russia’s Bryansk region

On May 13, two specialized Mi-8 TPR helicopters, one Su-34 frontline bomber and a Su-35 fighter jet were destroyed in the Bryansk region. All crews were killed. It happened 40 kilometers from the border with Ukraine, in the rear of the Russian Federation. There were mentions of a third helicopter from the Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat. He noted that this air group was firing guided bombs at Ukraine from the northern part of the Bryansk region. However, the Ukrainian Air Force did not explain the reasons for the massive air strike on Russia. The only thing they said was that Russians had run into trouble. There was no official statement from the Russian Defense Ministry, which gave rise to a bunch of theories, including the work of Ukrainian air defense systems that ambushed Russian aircraft. Or Ukrainian airborne reconnaissance groups crossed the border and destroyed the Russian aircraft. Or it was friendly fire from a Russian Pantsir unit. The uncertainty of what exactly happened in the Bryansk region only contributes to the spread of panic among Russians. This is very good.

The situation in the Bakhmut direction

Mykhailo Samus said that from the moment when some Ukrainian experts and politicians said that Bakhmut should be left and it would be more profitable to retreat to new positions, it was obvious that the command and General Syrsky personally thought differently and had a plan to conduct this defense competently in order to turn Bakhmut into a trap when the time came and Ukrainian troops seized the initiative, began to work proactively, going to the flanks and cutting off communications for Russia.

This is exactly what we are witnessing now: the initiative has obviously passed to the Ukrainians. Wagner PMC and regular Russian troops continue to destroy the city, trying to force Ukrainian troops out and formally declare the occupation of the entire Bakhmut. Prigozhin says 85-95%, but it is obvious that this is completely untrue. While Russians are trying to move in the city itself, the flanks are experiencing a tendency to cut off communications and the ability of the Russian Federation to hold the line. It may happen that the troops in Bakhmut will be forced to either leave the city or be surrounded. According to Mykhailo Samus, Prigozhin is forming new narratives, saying that the Russian army is failing. He has already morally destroyed the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces, the Chief of the General Staff and the Ministry of Defense several times. Prigozhin is just a spokesperson for the Wagner PMC project, but it's much broader and more complex. This project, in particular, can be managed by the Putin administration, because it is impossible to allow ambitious people like Prigozhin to suddenly appear in Russia and create their own PMCs. When the Minister of Defense is publicly cursed at, it must be someone higher than the Minister. In the Russian system, this is only the Putin administration. Now the ideological vacuum, which until recently was filled with a holy war with NATO, Nazis, and Satanists, is beginning to be filled with turbo-patriotic justice. New constructions are being built on the ground created by Russian propaganda. When propaganda begins to form such constructions, we can talk about the complete victory of this wing. The Presidential Administration is trying to play with different ideological directions and not allow any of them to prevail. We will not be able to come in with our own ideas. There are people in Russia who listen to Ukraine, but most Russians cannot imagine the fall of their empire. Mykhailo Samus believes that it is more likely that Russia will rather turn into a fascist-type tyranny for several decades using the latest technologies, AI, than into a democracy.

The West's future relations with Russia

Ukraine’s allies are frightened by the prospect of Russia's collapse. They say that the USSR collapsed unpredictably, and that this brought risks and problems. Perhaps, for the West, the transition of the Russian Federation a few decades before the next transformation is more desirable, because now they are not ready for it. If Putin disappears, does Russia have the prerequisites for democratic development? If the regime is weakened and destroyed, undemocratic forces and illiberal politicians will come to the surface. These will be people from the KGB, FSB, GRU, and General Staff who will try to establish their own order. The West has no idea how to communicate with the successors of the fascist Russian Federation, but this "black" Russia must be isolated from the civilized world. China will use it as a base for its resources, and for the EU, the US, and Ukraine, it must be excluded from all civilized parts of the economy, culture, and information. Then, perhaps, we will not immediately receive compensation, because dictators are unlikely to cooperate with Ukraine or the West. But even without this, we will develop properly.

Algorithm for using Storm Shadow

Oleh Katkov noted that everything points to the fact that Storm Shadow is actually being used at the frontline. The explosions and destruction in the temporarily occupied Luhansk indicate that it was a powerful combat unit. Storm Shadow has 450 kg of explosives, which is twice as much as ATACMS. The first projectile pierces concrete and any shelter, then the warhead flies in. The cost of the missile is quite high: in 2011, it was about EUR 850,000 euros, and in the early 20s, according to unconfirmed information, it was EUR 1.3 to 1.4 million. Currently, the British press has written about GBP 2 million, or about EUR 2.3 million. There will never be thousands of Storm Shadow units in Ukraine, because in the 90s the UK ordered up to 1,000 units for itself, France ordered 500 Scalp, and Italy ordered 200 units. For Ukraine, these missiles are not only expensive, but also limited in number. Each target must be selected. The hit facilities in Luhansk fully meet this criterion. Obviously, we are talking about an airborne platform, which is another advantage over ATACMS and HIMARS, which are tied to a specific operational area. It takes a lot of time to move it. In November 2022, it was said that the missiles would be integrated under the wing of a Su-24 bomber. Such an aircraft can operate in three different directions in a day. This will be a common practice. The Su-24, which has the capabilities of armament, pylons, and low-altitude supersonic flight, is a very effective carrier for Storm Shadow.

Additional weapons for the Storm Shadow. Russia published the wreckage of the ADM-160. This is a 46-kilogram missile that consists of an engine and a device that imitates a small missile from another aircraft

It can impersonate a cruise missile, a fighter jet, or a strategic bomber.

Such missiles are developed in the US and are designed to expose enemy air defense positions, record their work, create false targets and increase the burden on the enemy. If the wreckage was found in Luhansk, i.e. at a great distance, through “non-analog” anti-aircraft missile systems, then there are questions about these anti-aircraft missile systems.

We are talking about the success of the Bryansk air defense system, which in a short time destroyed at least four, and most likely five, aircraft, including up to three helicopters, Su-34 and Su-35. And this is almost fifty kilometers from the border with Ukraine. The question is what happened in Russia. This is all against the background of proper silence, because the Russians do not understand what is happening. This makes them even more afraid. Russians acted with impunity, beyond the range of the SAMs. The air group has two specific helicopters - Mi-8 MTPR-1, which are electronic warfare helicopters and consist of a powerful complex that puts up horns and jams, according to public sources of the Russian Federation, any radar. The Su-34 and Su-35 have containers that are supposed to jam any radar and create a huge number of false targets on enemy air defense radars. Then these aircraft are not vulnerable. In a short time, the entire air group was destroyed. The question is how. We can only congratulate the calculations of the Bryansk air defense system.