Ukrainian forces are likely conducting limited tactical withdrawal in Bakhmut – ISW

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

It is noted that Ukrainian forces may be withdrawing from their positions on the eastern bank of the Bakhmutka River, given recent geolocation footage of the destruction of a railway bridge across the river northeast of Bakhmut.

Geolocated footage showed that Wagner Group forces continued to advance in the northeastern part of Bakhmut, and on March 5 they advanced near the Stupky railway station, analysts state.

"A Ukrainian serviceman told a Ukrainian outlet that Russian forces have yet to cross the Bakhmutka River into central Bakhmut as of March 4, and Russian milbloggers claimed that the Wagner Group pushed Ukrainian positions back to central Bakhmut. It is unclear if Ukrainian forces are planning to hold positions on the western bank of the Bakhmutka River," the report reads.

Experts noted that the Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut remains strategically justified, as it "continues to consume Russian manpower and equipment as long as Ukrainian forces do not suffer excessive casualties."

"Ukrainian forces are unlikely to withdraw from Bakhmut all at once and may pursue a gradual fighting withdrawal to exhaust Russian forces through continued urban warfare. Russian forces are unlikely to quickly secure significant territorial gains when conducting urban warfare, which usually favors the defender and can allow Ukrainian forces to inflict high casualties on advancing Russian units—even as Ukrainian forces are actively withdrawing," ISW analysts believe.

The Bakhmut city center is located on the western bank of the Bakhmutka River, and Russian forces will have to fight their way through this area unless they can advance directly north or south of Bakhmut.

"Such urban conditions and river features may benefit Ukrainian forces if Ukrainian forces are able to hold the line from Khromove (a settlement on Bakhmut’s northwestern outskirts) south to the T0504 Bakhmut-Kostyantynivka highway. The Ukrainian defense of positions near Khromove and on the T0504 could force Russian forces to fight through the urban terrain of central Bakhmut, which could impose significant delays and losses on Russian forces and accelerate the culmination of Russia’s offensive. Urban warfare in Bakhmut may further degrade already exhausted Russian mixed forces in a fashion similar to that caused by Ukraine’s fighting withdrawal from the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk line, which effectively ended Russian offensive operations in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in the summer of 2022," the Institute added.

• On March 4, NSDC Secretary Danilov stated that the situation in Bakhmut is extremely difficult, but remains under control.

• Military experts are convinced that the AFU have completed their tasks near Bakhmut, and our forces can withdraw. ISW reported that Ukrainian forces are probably preparing for a controlled withdrawal of troops from some districts of Bakhmut.

• Serhiy Cherevatyi, the AFU Eastern Grouping spokesman, said that despite the fact that Russians destroyed the bridge that connects Bakhmut with Khromove, the AFU will rebuild their defenses and resist.

• On March 5, veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war and military expert Yevheniy Dykyi said on Espreso: "An intense battle is underway for the control over routes around Bakhmut – logistics are very complicated, this is critical." Military expert Dmytro Sniehyriov reported that the Russian army keeps attempting to encircle Bakhmut. According to him, the situation in the city is difficult, but not critical. The AFU conduct counterattacks.