Ukrainian air defense capabilities need to be reinforced with other weapons -  military expert Serhiy Zgurets

Situation around Bakhmut 

The Soledar, Bakhmut and Vuhledar directions are the hottest spots on the frontline where our troops are holding back the enemy's advance. In assessing the reality of each of them, we must approach them with the understanding that it is sometimes difficult to find the right words to assess and understand the stress our soldiers are undergoing on the frontline.

The Russian enemy is now focusing its efforts on capturing Bakhmut and trying to reach the two highways that feed the city. Soldier Viktor Burlyk, who is near Bakhmut, said that the situation in this area is always tense and is the main topic of discussion, as the whole world is following the developments in this particular area of the frontline. We can say that the Russian forces are not storming this city as head-on as before. Now, from the south, from Klishchiivka, they are trying to cut the Kostiantynivka-Bakhmut road and get up to Chasiv Yar so that the settlement is surrounded and cannot be supplied with ammunition, food and rotations. In the area of Klishchiivka and Kurdiumivka, the enemy is attacking with quite powerful artillery, meaning that they are trying to not only shell all the defenses, but destroy them to nothing. Our defenders have no choice but to occupy a further line of defense. This, of course, means a lot of ammunition, but the Russians don't take this into account, as the Bakhmut direction is a mega-priority for them. They are trying to do everything they can to report as soon as possible how much they love that a part of the city or the whole city has been captured. They try their best to at least get into the city so that they can make such statements.

The Bakhmut-Siversk highway can no longer be used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The enemy is already there. I think they will go down to the south and enter Bakhmut from the north and south, which means they will cut all the roads and surround the city. This is the enemy's position. I think the leadership of the Ukrainian Armed Forces sees this and has its own plans in this regard. Ukrainian artillery responds to every provocation or enemy offensive attempt. We must realize that the number of artillery used by the enemy is not commensurate with the number of Ukrainian artillery. So if you look at other parts of the frontline, as far as I know, they don't have the same limits of ammunition as in the first months of the full-scale war. And in the direction of Bakhmut, there is no limit. We all have to understand that Prigozhin wants to have a victory like Bakhmut at any cost, because the Wagner PMC wants to be identified with the Russian army and say that it is a combat unit, and for this it is necessary to capture Bakhmut.

There are many units in this area: the National Guard, the Armed Forces, and the Main Intelligence Directorate. I think that the General Staff will give a more correct answer, but I know that rotations are taking place, but I cannot assess the scale and give a final opinion on what is happening there. I know what's going on, but I can't tell you the scale. If the defenders are holding the line, then the logistics are working. At least I have not encountered any logistical problems.

Capabilities of the Ukrainian air defense

Air defense is an essential component to minimize the constant challenges from the Russian Federation, which uses missile terror to influence our civilian population and strikes at critical infrastructure. We understand that we need to receive new air defense systems of various levels, and there are promises from our partners. Of course, we are talking about aviation, because this week was dedicated to aviation, as some countries, including the Netherlands, say they are ready to provide Ukraine with fighter jets if the issue arises. The manufacturer of the F16, in particular, said it was ready to increase production of new aircraft to give them to countries that would then provide them from their arsenals to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The new Ramstein, which is expected to be held on February 14, has been called an aviation one by Ukrainian leaders, meaning that discussions on the supply of aircraft are extremely important. We know that there will be tanks and armored personnel carriers, but in the format of the concept of offensive actions, this armored armada must be covered from the air, because only this triple component guarantees the most effective use of all the potentials of weapons embedded in tanks, armored personnel carriers and aircraft. We also perceive that the aircraft will eventually be equipped with long-range weapons that will destroy enemy targets even at longer ranges than the ATACMS we have been asking for from the United States for a long time, which, in particular, are extremely important for destroying the Russian defense system at longer ranges than HIMARS can provide. So, we are now at such an important stage when air defense capabilities must be strengthened with other weapons. Just a few days ago, there was a publication that the aircraft inventory could have different versions, because, in particular, there were proposals to Germany to share Tornado aircraft with Ukraine. There were publications in the French press that France should be shaken up, and the issue of providing us with Mirage aircraft should be raised. In fact, again, as was the case with tanks, the foreign press, experts and politicians are beginning to raise the issue that without aviation it will be extremely difficult to ensure effective combat operations and offensive operations. The ice was broken, and now all countries are offering us different models of really necessary heavy tanks. We hope this perspective should be extended to military aviation. Here we are talking about both F16 and F15 fighters. All these aircraft are at the disposal of the United States and NATO. This is an important component that will complement the ground capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces after we receive a significant amount of armored vehicles. This fits in with the concept developed by the United States during the offensive, in particular in the war against Iraq. We need to get new opportunities to use foreign aviation.

Yuriy Ihnat, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force Command, said that the aircraft type in question was proposed not just one, but several, back when the Air Force Vision 2035 was being adopted, several years before the Russian invasion, which identified the types of aircraft that could replace the old ones. We have two types of fighters, the Su-25 attack aircraft and the Su-24 bomber. There were also Griffins and F-class aircraft - F15, F16 and others. The topic of warplanes never left the agenda. Yuriy Ihnat personally took part in many conferences, interviews, and comments to keep the topic of combat aircraft on the agenda from the very beginning of the war. At first, they asked to close the sky or provide the means for this - air defense and aircraft, in particular. The topic is not new, but somewhat forgotten, because at first there was an emphasis on one type of weapon (artillery, HIMARS, UAVs), and now on tanks and aircraft. We considered several candidates that could become the main combat aircraft of the Air Force. The F16 is the best choice, because the F15 is heavier, twin-engine, has a longer range, can carry more weapons, but you have to physically take these aircraft, so the F16 has an advantage, and the allies have quite a few of them. This requires training of pilots and infrastructure, which is already underway. The Ministry of Infrastructure, the Ministry of Defense, and other agencies are working on preparing the infrastructure to receive demanding Western equipment. Of course, this includes training pilots, which will take a lot of time. The complex will be used to train pilots, aircraft engineers, and infrastructure, but only when it is finally announced that this type of aircraft has been identified and we are adopting it, and the US readiness to provide it is confirmed by officials. Then we will wait for it. Every Ramstein is an impetus for some kind of weaponry. Discussions are ongoing, but we are getting the weapons. This is happening slowly, but we hope that the topic (of providing Ukraine with aviation - ed.) will be discussed at the ninth meeting. Hopefully, it will be not only discussions, but also concrete decisions. And they don't have to be published and discussed by our media and Telegram channels, as we like to do. Firstly, the topic is relevant, and secondly, everyone really wants this - tanks, F16s - but they must understand that this is a difficult process and not every country wants to publicly shout about it to the whole world. American HARM missiles and other weapons would be very good on US aircraft, because their tactical and technical characteristics and functionality are significantly reduced on our aircraft.

Russia's use of Iranian drones

The last time Russia used 24 Iranian 'kamikaze' drones. There is a certain understanding that there are not many of them left to hit us. Of course, Iran can supply more, but in October and November, they launched drones from 23:00 to 03:00, in particular to the center of Ukraine, their main target, namely the outskirts of the capital. It was there that the most UAVs were shot down. They used a large number of them on New Year's Eve - 45, the next night - 39, and now - 24. They have a certain deficit of these weapons, which they use to deplete our air defense, identify positions, see where we shoot them down, and get information about the location of air defense. The weather can also have an impact. If the temperature goes from above zero to below zero, ice cover will interfere with their missions. This rarely happens, so Yuriy Ihnat believes that Russia has a shortage of these drones.

Assessment of Russian use of Kinzhals

Yuriy Ihnat noted that publishing the locations of hits is the prerogative of local authorities, but even if they are not really that effective, they are extremely dangerous, because it is virtually impossible to intercept, detect and shoot them down. The fact that they don't hit is good, but we should try to reduce their already small population. At the beginning of the full-scale war in Russia, there were about 50, and now there are about the same, because they may have produced more in a year. But they are used from time to time and extremely rarely.