UK can break vicious circle of supplying tanks to Ukraine, while Germany and US don’t decide - Serhiy Zgurets

Western tanks for Ukraine

Next, we will talk about the weapons that we desperately need to strengthen our defense and the Ukrainian army, and most importantly about tanks. The UK may become the first supplier of Western Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine, while Germany and the US were determining which of them will break this vicious circle of supplying the first tanks from the West. 

Poland supplied the largest number of tanks to Ukraine, and after the beginning of the large-scale aggression of Russia, Warsaw handed over 270 T-72 tanks and PT-91 Twardy tanks to Kyiv. Poland received a request from Ukraine for the transfer of German Leopard tanks, which are now equipped in Poland. Warsaw stressed that this could happen by a joint step of transferring these tanks from a number of European allies to Ukraine itself. In particular, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki directly stated that Warsaw is negotiating to create a broad coalition of countries that could provide modern tanks for the defense needs of Ukraine. Finland, Sweden, Spain and Poland are ready to provide Leopard tanks. If we add Germany, these countries have a total of 1,200 Leopard tanks in various versions, and more than 800 of them are the latest versions.

Dariusz Materniak, Head of the Center for Polish-Ukrainian Studies, noted that the implementation of this Polish initiative largely depends on our Western partners. Representatives of the Polish government have declared their readiness to transfer a certain number of tanks, that is, at first we are talking about 10 Leopard 2 tanks within the framework of the allied initiative. If there are more countries, it will be possible to collect a larger number. By the end of January, a decision may already be made by Western partners on this issue.

The situation may repeat itself, as it was with the Patriot systems. At first, it seemed that the transfer of these SAMs would be problematic, a month later the United States agreed and a week later Germany announced the provision of one Patriot battery. It is also a matter of time, but the discussions will not drag on for a long time. In a few weeks, we will have a result, hopefully, positive for Ukraine and for us.

Leopard 2 tanks are the majority of tanks in service in Poland. And to give more tanks, Poland needs to wait for the delivery of American M1 Abrams tanks and South Korean K-2 tanks. It is also a matter of time because how many Leopard 2 tanks Poland can transfer to Ukraine directly depends on the supply of tanks from the United States and South Korea.

The situation around Soledar and Bakhmut

The defenders of Soledar and Bakhmut are doing everything to exhaust Russia and minimize its offensive potential. This is how the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense assesses the situation in this eastern section of our front with the aggressor. 

Now Russia is conducting assault attacks and artillery strikes on these cities. Ukrainian Ministry of Defense states the most capable units of Wagner's PMC are concentrated in the direction of Soledar, which should show at least some tactical success on the battlefield. 

Before that, Russia tried to demonstrate such success for more than six months, mainly by frontal attacks on Bakhmut but lost many personnel and equipment. This process continues now. These efforts are now spreading to the north and south of Bakhmut, including attacks on Soledar and Klishchiyivka in an attempt to encircle Bakhmut itself.

The information on the situation in Soledar is not straightforward. There were reports from the President of Ukraine that additional units will be deployed to this section of the front to repel Russia's offensive on the town. Soledar is controlled by the Ukrainian military, but details are important.

Ivan Varchenko, a security expert and serviceman of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, said that the Russian army is carrying out offensive actions. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are holding the defense and destroying Russia. 

Russian forces, having concentrated huge efforts, not valuing the lives and health of their soldiers, throw bodies on the Ukrainian land for symbolic victories and to have something to tell their Fuhrer. Orders of Russian generals have nothing to do with the art of war, with the norms and rules of war. 

Russia is trying to take at least some steps that can be characterized as a success. Because of this, any Russian advance has a taste of Pyrrhic victory (a victory that is tantamount to defeat - ed.), because the efforts expended do not correspond to the achievements that can be shown to Russian people. Every meter is given to them by thousands of soldiers' lives. In the defensive confrontation, the Ukrainian Armed Forces inflict damage to the Russian army many times higher than the Russian soldiers do to the Ukrainian forces. But it is difficult and there is a lot of work. The entire force of the Russian army is concentrated on the entire front line, which barely exceeds 50 km.

The situation in the Luhansk region

Ivan Varchenko claims every offensive action consciously or unconsciously pursues the goal of drawing the Russian troops away from a particular area. But they achieve this goal because the party that carries out defensive actions is forced to pull up reserves to prevent breakthroughs and attacks. 

So, Russia now has big problems in the northern direction. Russians risk losing a third of its logistics, which supplies the agglomeration Sievierodonetsk - Lysychansk - Rubizhne. This is the road that goes through Svatove, Kreminna to Sieiverodonetsk. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are now advancing and threatening to take control of the R-66 road leading from Valuyky to Sievierodonetsk. Accordingly, the Russian forces are trying to draw attention away from this area, because Soledar has located 35-40 km from Sievierodonetsk and Kreminna. That is why part of the Defense Forces is being pulled back, or rather concentrated to prevent breakthroughs.

On the southern front, we are also conducting defensive battles with the transition to counterattacks and offensive actions. This is a classic of conventional warfare. The Ukrainian Defense Forces act in the same way, groping for weaknesses in the Russian positions. We are successfully doing it and can demonstrate success in positional defensive battles and in active offensive actions. I am confident that the Russian forces cannot achieve operational success for a number of reasons. One of the reasons is that winter in Ukraine is definitely not working on the side of the Russian army. They will be defeated.