The war of artillery. Ukraine is reaching the same amount of ammunition as Russia — Serhiy Zgurets

Ukraine's Preparation for War with Russia

Military and political observer Ihor Levchenko believes that the situation with Ukraine's preparations for war should be divided into the pre-2014 and post-2014 periods. According to the observer, the Ukrainian military and political leadership in both situations could have been better prepared for a war with Russia. Unfortunately, as Levchenko emphasized, the political elites that were formed in Ukraine before 2014 had a somewhat naive view of the Russian Federation. In particular, regarding the issue of security threats. This position may have been due to the fact that most Ukrainian politicians were formed in the USSR and did not pay due attention to the real history of relations between Ukraine and Russia. As for the events after 2014, our political leadership made a number of miscalculations. The military was preparing for the war, as it was the first time since independence that they had faced direct participation in hostilities. On the other hand, starting in 2015, when the active phase of the ATO was completed and the war entered a protracted phase, Ukraine did not have an organized powerful and efficient production of ammunition. This is quite a revealing picture. According to Levchenko, such cases describe Ukraine's preparations for war with Russia. The military-political observer also emphasized that the creation and formation of the territorial defense were belated. In fact, the territorial defense centers began to form at the end of 2021, when the threat of Russian invasion was at its highest level.

The US recommends postponing the Ukrainian army's offensive and better preparing the Ukrainian Armed Forces

U.S. military experts analyse the situation in Ukraine based on Western warfare theory, military operations training, and operational art. These theories differ significantly from Soviet and post-Soviet methods of warfare. According to Levchenko, the American recommendation to first prepare and train the Ukrainian military to use Western weapons, and then launch an offensive is correct. Because to maintain the pace of the offensive, Ukraine must have enough reserves. In particular, if we talk about the Zaporizhzhia direction as the most promising, we need to have enough forces and resources to cover a distance of more than 100 kilometers with fighting and liberate our territories. For example, the operation to liberate the Kharkiv region stopped at a certain stage because, most likely, our command did not have any trained reserves to continue the offensive.

Ammunition famine in the Russian army

Defense Express editor-in-chief Oleh Katkov said that since the beginning of the invasion, the Russian forces have had no limit on the use of artillery shells. They could use more than 60 thousand shells per day. Over time, this figure began to decrease. As of today, according to the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, the Russian army has introduced a strict economy of artillery shells. On the other hand, the situation on various parts of the frontline may differ. Russian forces may save ammunition in one direction and actively use it in another. However, the situation that existed back in the summer, when the enemy had a tenfold advantage in artillery ammunition per day, is changing. As for the Ukrainian army, according to some reports, Ukraine can use more than 5,000 rounds of ammunition per day. And here, according to Katkov, the problem is not the number of ammunition, but the number of artillery systems. That is why we are now increasingly seeing a large number of ammunition for artillery systems in new military aid packages to Ukraine.

Ukraine is setting up the production of ammunition for artillery and mortars

According to Ukroboronprom, Ukraine has launched the production of 152-mm artillery shells and mortar ammunition. That is why it can be emphasized that the process of producing ammunition for Soviet artillery systems has been established. According to Katkov, such ammunition is produced not only in Russia and Ukraine. Such ammunition is also produced in countries that were members of the Warsaw Pact. The fact is that many countries in the world use Soviet-style ammunition. Therefore, the market for such ammunition is very saturated. That is, there are manufacturers in the world that could theoretically supply Ukraine with Soviet-style ammunition. However, the right path for Ukraine, in any case, would be to switch to NATO artillery systems and ammunition. Moreover, as the fighting in Ukraine has shown, 155-mm ammunition is much more effective on the battlefield.

 Number of artillery systems for Ukraine

Oleh Katkov believes that there will be restrictions on the supply of weapons to Ukraine in any case. The same applies to ammunition. Ukraine will never get an unlimited supply of artillery ammunition. Because NATO has never had a theory of using a wall of fire in war. At the same time, if we recall the words of Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi about the necessary number of weapons needed to liberate Ukraine, the question arises whether we should take into account the artillery systems that have already been transferred to us. As of today, we have received more than 300 such systems. Another 110 artillery systems of various calibers have been announced, which Ukraine will receive gradually. That is, we are already approaching the figure of 500 artillery systems mentioned by Zaluzhnyi.